Bronco Pricing Forecast

[rugbysecondrow]

$6 gas at 17 mpg, $1600 for a set of tires, rising interest rates, people buying soft-tops who want hard tops, first time convertible owners, family's thinking they can get by with a two door, yeah I see a crash coming in two years.

I don't get the doomsday scenario. Jeeps have been selling strong for decades, with similar variables, and there has rarely been a vehicle that retains it's value as well as a Jeep.

This isn't that hard...look to history. Jeep, Toyota 4x4...these are some of your highest value retaining vehicles on the market, and also most analogous to the Bronco.

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[Contact]

I would be more concerned with the possible impending recession coming . Interest rates will rise and factories and businesses will be laying off. Prices of goods and services will rise and spending will decrease. You may see some dealers coming down on their inventory as well as some original owners selling their Bronco to reduce their debt. Financially things may be a little tight in the near future.

 

[rugbysecondrow]

Area 51 is the only one that disappointed me. So far the sleeper color for me is Cactus Grey. Ive only seen 3 in person - the one I saw at night looked better than any other color.

Not color threads again. LOL.

I have come around on Cactus grey for 2 door, but on 4 door, there is just too much surface area. It looks like unpainted dry wall.

This is my general opinion on most 4doora though.

 

[Newdoc]

I would be more concerned with the possible impending recession coming . Interest rates will rise and factories and businesses will be laying off. Prices of goods and services will rise and spending will decrease. You may see some dealers coming down on their inventory as well as some original owners selling their Bronco to reduce their debt. Financially things may be a little tight in the near future.

Good thoughts but there is so much demand that this scenario isn't as predictable as in the past. Maybe we will some increased used inventory. There are a lot of people stretching hard to get the Bronco in their driveways. Repos and resales may increase in frequency. Crazy to think that paying a small ADM or MSRP will get you ahead of inflation and price increases.

 

[JerryC]

I don't get the doomsday scenario. Jeeps have been selling strong for decades, with similar variables, and there has rarely been a vehicle that retains it's value as well as a Jeep.

This isn't that hard...look to history. Jeep, Toyota 4x4...these are some of your highest value retaining vehicles on the market, and also most analogous to the Bronco.

IMHO this is because Jeep and Toyota are good at not f'ng up a good product. Wranglers, 4Runners and Tacos stick to the core utility and design. Mostly changes are improvements in that core utility.

However, look at what Ford had done in the past with the Bronco. Beware what Ford might do to this version of the Bronco.

 

[rugbysecondrow]

IMHO this is because Jeep and Toyota are good at not f'ng up a good product. Wranglers, 4Runners and Tacos stick to the core utility and design. Mostly changes are improvements in that core utility.

However, look at what Ford had done in the past with the Bronco. Beware what Ford might do to this version of the Bronco.

Sure, but you can manufacture any "what if" scenario to fit your viewpoint. Some would say the Yota and Jeep design and product stalled, leaving room for a vehicle like the Bronco. The knife cuts both ways.

The reality, as we know it now, for the foreseeable future, is that the current Bronco is the model for 21,22,23. will it change, maybe. But that doesn't change these three model years that have incredibly high appeal. What happens in 24,25 or beyond likely won't measurably change 21,22,23 values.

Again, the past is a good guide here and we have some great analogies to use. Some folks really seem to be over thinking this.

 

[Tunagates]

Couldn’t disagree more here. I love my A51, more than I expected to.

yeah, i know man... its really stupid to talk about color preferences... thats my fault. Totally subjective.

 

[MNBigfoot]

I don't get the doomsday scenario. Jeeps have been selling strong for decades, with similar variables, and there has rarely been a vehicle that retains it's value as well as a Jeep.

This isn't that hard...look to history. Jeep, Toyota 4x4...these are some of your highest value retaining vehicles on the market, and also most analogous to the Bronco.

I agree it isn't hard to look at history.....When gas prices spiked in 2008 large SUVs sales plummeted.

 

[Lowdogg]

yeah, i know man... its really stupid to talk about color preferences... thats my fault. Totally subjective.

No worries.
Honestly, when I was able to see all the colors live at an Off-Roadeo I didn’t think there was a bad one.

 

[rugbysecondrow]

I agree it isn't hard to look at history.....When gas prices spiked in 2008 large SUVs sales plummeted.

this isn't a large SUV

you are also ignoring, conveniently, many other variables.

 

[JerryC]

Sure, but you can manufacture any "what if" scenario to fit your viewpoint. Some would say the Yota and Jeep design and product stalled, leaving room for a vehicle like the Bronco. The knife cuts both ways.

The reality, as we know it now, for the foreseeable future, is that the current Bronco is the model for 21,22,23. will it change, maybe. But that doesn't change these three model years that have incredibly high appeal. What happens in 24,25 or beyond likely won't measurably change 21,22,23 values.

Again, the past is a good guide here and we have some great analogies to use. Some folks really seem to be over thinking this.

I would say that there was always room for this Bronco but that Ford would not build it. There wasn't room for the previous Bronco as other vehicles fit the niche much better. Can you off road a 90's Bronco? Sure you can, will a Wrangler totally kick its butt? Oh yeah 10x over. The market didn't want an oversized weak sauce SUV masquerading as an off road vehicle.

Ford simply did not have the will to build a Wrangler or 4Runner competitor but the market was always there.

 

[jb56]

I don't get the doomsday scenario. Jeeps have been selling strong for decades, with similar variables, and there has rarely been a vehicle that retains it's value as well as a Jeep.

This isn't that hard...look to history. Jeep, Toyota 4x4...these are some of your highest value retaining vehicles on the market, and also most analogous to the Bronco.

This thread is tricky because it seems like everyone is talking about different things.

My original question was really centered around whether a new bronco purchased for MSRP would maintain its value at or above MSRP for the next while. I'm not necessarily talking about the Bronco dropping by huge numbers. Or losing 25% of its value or something. But I'm paying $60,970. My dealership is still selling broncos that are used for $12k-$20k more than MSRP. I have to think that huge premium will start to disappear and that the wait for new broncos will get shorter. So my concern is that if I keep the bronco for a year or two, it would be hard to sell it for $55,000 or more.

And it's fine to say "well of course it will depreciate." But I actually am not certain of that. That's what I think. That is how it always used to be, because even with a Jeep or 4Runner, people didn't want to pay as much for a used one as a new one. So there was some discount. And because this is a third vehicle for me, the short-term resale value is one of many factors I'm thinking about.

Along side that is the fact that this Bronco is over $60,000. The jeep comparison is fine, but what percentage of Jeep sales in the last 20 years have been for over $50,000?

Asking whether a $38,000 jeep holds its value is just a different question from asking about a $60,000 Bronco. I'm not saying they aren't somewhat related. But I think demand will behave a little differently. Maybe a Bronco won't end up like a land rover, but maybe it will be somewhere in between. Or maybe not.

I think I'm just going to buy it and I think I probably won't lose that much of what I pay if we decide we don't want to have 3 cars in a year.

 

[Dayton1984]

I agree although I see the Bronco as more recession/high gas prices proof than other SUVs as, to me, the Bronco purchased more of a toy/third vehicle than a family hauler. Financially it makes sense to buy toys cash but I know we live in a credit based society.

I think we will see gas guzzler SUVs (think Tahoe, Expedition, Durango, etc.) that are purchased for the purpose of moving a family (appliance) being traded for smaller, more efficient vehicles before we see a lot of Broncos hit the used market.

Funny you mention that I thought the same and today driving to gym I passed maybe 4 expeditions/excursions for sale in front yards by owner. My guess is gas prices

 

[Gizmo]

This thread is tricky because it seems like everyone is talking about different things.

My original question was really centered around whether a new bronco purchased for MSRP would maintain its value at or above MSRP for the next while. I'm not necessarily talking about the Bronco dropping by huge numbers. Or losing 25% of its value or something. But I'm paying $60,970. My dealership is still selling broncos that are used for $12k-$20k more than MSRP. I have to think that huge premium will start to disappear and that the wait for new broncos will get shorter. So my concern is that if I keep the bronco for a year or two, it would be hard to sell it for $55,000 or more.

And it's fine to say "well of course it will depreciate." But I actually am not certain of that. That's what I think. That is how it always used to be, because even with a Jeep or 4Runner, people didn't want to pay as much for a used one as a new one. So there was some discount. And because this is a third vehicle for me, the short-term resale value is one of many factors I'm thinking about.

Along side that is the fact that this Bronco is over $60,000. The jeep comparison is fine, but what percentage of Jeep sales in the last 20 years have been for over $50,000?

Asking whether a $38,000 jeep holds its value is just a different question from asking about a $60,000 Bronco. I'm not saying they aren't somewhat related. But I think demand will behave a little differently. Maybe a Bronco won't end up like a land rover, but maybe it will be somewhere in between. Or maybe not.

I think I'm just going to buy it and I think I probably won't lose that much of what I pay if we decide we don't want to have 3 cars in a year.

I plan to order one in August, I have no clue how long i will own the Bronco and do not plan to make $$ on it. I know we are not in typical times with things and non of us have a crystal ball so i think you can go nuts trying to guess at your question. I think for me, if fuel were to jump to 7, or $9 per gallon, i might change my thought in this purchase.

 

[phocion]

Long term it will hold value like a Wrangler.

Short term (selling in the next 12-24 months), with the economy as volatile as it is right now, with unpredictable variables like what the Fed will do with rates, I think trying to time the market in either direction is a bad idea unless you're willing to lose thousands on a gamble.

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