Bronco Pricing Forecast

[ThomasK]

Sadly... it's comforting to see your post... I was wondering if I was the only one still waiting for my nearly TWO year old reservation, all the while, as I see folks post all their cool upgrades and trips with their Broncos, and I see Broncos driving around my area daily.

You're not the only one, I'm right there with you!

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[Heffe66413]

I don't believe the supply chain issues will be resolved anytime soon. Even with a recession looming, there is still a backlog of unfilled orders of cars and many other big ticket items. Scarcity will keep prices and resale values high.

I partially agree with your assessment. With a recession looming- some will be forced to sell their financed Bronco just to survive.

 

[mcinfantry]

I don't believe the supply chain issues will be resolved anytime soon. Even with a recession looming, there is still a backlog of unfilled orders of cars and many other big ticket items. Scarcity will keep prices and resale values high.

I think 5000 over may be not a bad risk. There’s a 2000 across the board increase for 2022.5
So if you aren’t in the price protection, you absolutely will see 2000 for job 2
I bet 2023 sees another 2000 and possibly a reduction in chip features

JUST my .02

 

[SethPoeski]

I'm going to agree with others - in my opinion, the supply chain issues will not be resolved for at minimum a year or two. Even in the event the constraints for supply chains have been alleviated by the end of the year (not likely), it will take the market a year or two simply to catch up with unprecedented demand. The looming recession is going to cause people to (hopefully) hunker down and make smarter financial decisions, which will eventually lead to a cooling off of inflation, but it all takes time. TL;DR: I wouldn't worry about your purchase. The likelihood of inventory and price drops in the next year or two is minimal, but no one can say for certain. Crazier things have happened. Enjoy the vehicle that you've waited almost two years for, and don't fret on overpaying - if you came in at MSRP, you're good! Other suckers are out here paying $15-30k OVER MSRP. They are the ones that should worry!

 

[shoelessjoe]

This is an odd comment. Don't you think it's a reasonable way to analyze the question to look at whether you might be able to get the same bronco with low miles for $45,000 in a year or two? Or if you might be able to get a bronco for $5,000 under sticker in a year?

And it does make me a little uncomfortable to pay sticker for a high-end bronco. When I purchased my F150 in 2019 and my Wife's expedition in 2020, we paid way under sticker.

You bought before Covid when there was probably a huge surplus of vehicles on every dealership lot across the country. I highly doubt we will see that anytime soon if ever again.

 

[Jdc]

I think one thing not being considered here is all the folks that will be trading in their bronco once they realize an off-road truck, and all the compromises that come along with it, isn't for them.

 

[JBlanco]

A family member paid $85k for a $60k MSRP 2021 Wildrak for his wife.
The engine started making weird noises and he talked to a vendor to see how much he would get as a trade in for a 2022.
He was offered $51k. His wife is still driving the 2021.

The resale value of your vehicle will depend on who you talk to that is ACTUALLY willing to give you the money for it.

If you are not planning on trading or reselling, it shouldn't matter.

This Bronco I have on order will be the first vehicle I custom order and have ever paid MSRP (a little lower because I ordered from Ford of Horsham) for.

If it wasn't a gift for my wife, I wouldn't had purchased it.

 

[RainbowStix]

The Bronco shortage won’t be coming to an end anytime soon.

However, at $13k over sticker, you’re upside down the second you drive it off the lot.

And if we hit excess supply in say, January

 

[JBlanco]

I partially agree with your assessment. With a recession looming- some will be forced to sell their financed Bronco just to survive.

I agree although I see the Bronco as more recession/high gas prices proof than other SUVs as, to me, the Bronco purchased more of a toy/third vehicle than a family hauler. Financially it makes sense to buy toys cash but I know we live in a credit based society.

I think we will see gas guzzler SUVs (think Tahoe, Expedition, Durango, etc.) that are purchased for the purpose of moving a family (appliance) being traded for smaller, more efficient vehicles before we see a lot of Broncos hit the used market.

 

[MNBigfoot]

$6 gas at 17 mpg, $1600 for a set of tires, rising interest rates, people buying soft-tops who want hard tops, first time convertible owners, family's thinking they can get by with a two door, yeah I see a crash coming in two years.

 

[Romano]

Hey Everyone! TL;DR - Do you think we'll see excess Bronco supply in the next year or two and whether we will see significant price drops in the new and lightly used Bronco market.

Longer version:

I'm very excited about my Bronco (Wildtrak, Area 51, Lux) to be delivered in a few weeks. Although I hope that we will love our Bronco and keep it for years I'm just slightly worried that we are going to see massive price drops in vehicles over the next year or so.

My dealer is selling a near-identical bronco for $13,000 over sticker, so as of right now, you'd think there's no chance of being very upside down in a bronco. And I'm not looking to flip mine.

It seems to me that there are a ton of used cars on the market and that Ford in particular is starting to produce way more Broncos. Two years ago and before the Pandemic, I never would have paid sticker price for a vehicle And although the Bronco is an awesome vehicle, paying $61,000 for it makes me a little uncomfortable.

I talked to a regional Ford rep and he said privately that he thought the pricing on Broncos would cool, but probably wouldn't drop below sticker, although he thought the market generally would see huge excess inventory.

But if Ford is really putting out thousands of broncos a week, will we hit excess supply? Will there continue to be massive demand for a relatively small SUV that gets 17 MPG and costs over $60k? Will demand wane for the higher trims?

On the other hand, it seems like Jeep sells about 3800 Wranglers per week most years.

After the open they open the order banks in August it will provide a better chance to judge. There are already people lining up to buy them when it opens and if the shut it down again because of the amount of orders they are capable of fulfilling on 2023 then you will know availability will be limited and pricing will remain very high. Like it is now.

 

[Compta38]

Without getting political it's pretty much a given the economy is going to tank within the next year, I think much sooner as it's already in the process of starting. If you couple that with ever rising energy prices I could easily see Bronco as well as all new vehicle prices take a good tumble.

 

[JerryC]

I've said before that rising interest rates may be the killer. People that figured on 3% might be looking at double that, or more.

People living high on stock market gains are starting to tighten the purse strings as the economy falters.

With the cost of everything going up the budget for a vehicle may be one of the first things to go.

It may be that soon the dealers will have plenty of Broncos they can't sell.

FWIW, my local dealer has a Base model up for sale at 64K.

 

[CT203]

Nobody can really predict that, and if someone could they would be a very very rich man.

Just my 2 cents, I'd imagine it will cool off but still hold better residual value than the market average. Look at wranglers pre 2020, they certainly depreciated with time, but not nearly as bad as something like a Honda Civic.

I think fuel prices could impact things more. These are enthusiast type vehicles, so many who just want one will still want them and get them. The daily driver crowd might be swayed to something more economical. No clue how relevant this is, but Wranlger sales in 2007 were 119,243. In 2008: 84,614. 2009: 82,004. Sales started to increase again in 2010.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/jeep-wrangler-sales-figures/

 

[jb56]

The Bronco shortage won’t be coming to an end anytime soon.

However, at $13k over sticker, you’re upside down the second you drive it off the lot.

my dealership has one on the lot for $13k over. But my order is coming in and I’m paying MSRP.

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