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New Allocation Adjustment by Ford - Needs Valadation

Gamecock

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I'm not misunderstanding to the extent you're implying.

The allocation calculation was based on three factors, two of them known. Only if the dealer converted Zero orders, the allocation number would drop by 25%. Therefore, the initial allocation calculation was not followed by Ford.


  • 50% of reservations will be fulfilled based on a calculation using the dealers number of bronco reservations (KNOWN NUMBER)
  • 25% of reservations will be fulfilled based on a calculation using the dealers sales volume (UNKNOWN NUMBER)
  • 25% of the reservations will be fulfilled based on a calculation using the sales of jeeps/4Runners in market (KNOWN NUMBER)

Therefore, to lose 25% of the allocations from the estimate, zero orders would have been converted. This was not the case because more than the allocation number was converted at my dealer.

Something is not adding up in this situation and to say that I don't understand is disingenuous to the conversation.
Don’t know where you got that wording on the formula, but it is not correct

. 50% of the allocation came from reservations prior to Sep 19th that were CONVERTED TO ORDERS. An unknown until 3/19. The estimate was based on total reservations...which had no bearing on the actual number, for good reason. They could have a 100k reservations and get zero if they converted zero. That was always the case.
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Granger Ford

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  • Our dealer's total allocation (because they refuse to tell us)
  • What number we are in line (because they refuse to tell us)
In fairness to at least our dealership we still do not know where our actual allocation will finalize...

We cannot tell folks how many will end at however it will be in excess or the final number that we were given...

As for where folks stand in line, we could tell them where in our listing vs the number we had been give however that has proven a moving number at best with them picking reservations from 7/13 to as late as 11/15 so far...

How could we guess that the 15 or so later ones would be that far back from the first hand raiser reservation holders?

We strove hard to get all of our orders converted so that Ford could look them over and schedule them so production (once started) would flow as smooth as possible with what they have at hand and ready to build... Giving our res holders the best opportunity at getting a Bronco that we could provide…I would hope that most dealerships did as well…

This "problem" is more of an expectation vs the reality of mass production with commodity restrictions...

That being said yes it does sting to have an early reservation get theirs behind a much later res holders build...
 
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LSU Jonno

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In fairness to at least our dealership we still do not know where our actual allocation will finalize...

We cannot tell folks how many will end at however it will be in excess or the final number that we were given...

As for where folks stand in line, we could tell them where in our listing vs the number we had been give however that has proven a moving number at best with them picking reservations from 7/13 to as late as 11/15 so far...

How could we guess that the 15 or so later ones would be that far back from the first hand raiser reservation holders?

We strove hard to get all of our orders converted so that Ford could look them over and schedule them so production (once started) would flow as smooth as possible with what they have at hand and ready to build... Giving our res holders the best opportunity at getting a Bronco that we could provide…I would hope that most dealerships did as well…

This "problem" is more of an expectation vs the reality of mass production with commodity restrictions...

That being said yes it does sting to have an early reservation get theirs behind a much later res holders build...

Understand all of that. But being #2 out of 3 and being #2 out of 80 are vastly different situations. Same as being #50 out of 52 and being #50 out of 300. I get that the situation is fluid, but I also know how probabilities work. I also don't think that it's a valid excuse from withholding information. I think most of us adults would appreciate the transparency so that we could make better decisions either with our own MY21 builds, or dropping to a 99, or bailing entirely.

I mean if I knew that I was #50 out of 52, with my sins on my build being what they are, I'd probably 99 my order tomorrow and see what MY22 brings as far as improvements.
 

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I think I am somewhere around 400 or so out of 112. My dealer hasn't bothered to tell me. That's at a small/medium size dealership. The other medium size dealership I spoke with had 160 allocations.

I assume the larger dealerships like Sanderson must have over 400 or so.

Granger understands that every 2021 order has a chance of being built. The chance may be super low, but with "commodity shortage roulette" it's possible.

My dealership didn't want to convert mine because they figured that they had converted well more than their allocation. So I basically told them, order my truck or I'm ordering from Granger and shipping it 1500 miles. It got ordered that afternoon.
 

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Wanted33

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In fairness to at least our dealership we still do not know where our actual allocation will finalize...

We cannot tell folks how many will end at however it will be in excess or the final number that we were given...

As for where folks stand in line, we could tell them where in our listing vs the number we had been give however that has proven a moving number at best with them picking reservations from 7/13 to as late as 11/15 so far...


How could we guess that the 15 or so later ones would be that far back from the first hand raiser reservation holders?

We strove hard to get all of our orders converted so that Ford could look them over and schedule them so production (once started) would flow as smooth as possible with what they have at hand and ready to build... Giving our res holders the best opportunity at getting a Bronco that we could provide…I would hope that most dealerships did as well…

This "problem" is more of an expectation vs the reality of mass production with commodity restrictions...

That being said yes it does sting to have an early reservation get theirs behind a much later res holders build...
Hot dang Albert, does that mean I could move from #774 in your line-up to maybe #769? I'm stoked, you da man Albert. :cool: :p I'll see myself out....;)
 

lakesinai

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I'm not even sure how to respond to this frustration. My dealer converted way more than what they were allocated, but still lost builds. Reservation timestamp means nothing, dealer volume was all that really mattered.

This rollout is absolutely messed up beyond comprehension.
I do feel the frustration. I think that, if Ford is not able to build what they expected this quarter, there's going to be a reduction in units scheduled by some metric. But I'm not sure that "allocations" is that metric . . . but who knows? I do know that Ford is losing lots of money in lost sales, Bronco, F150, etc, for various commodity reasons. We have reservations, but They are not Sales. And I do know that Ford would like to build these trucks . . . They don't get my money until the truck is at the dealer. So personally, I'm not inclined to damn or blame Ford for not being able to deliver, YET, because they want to deliver as much as I want the car. Not that there aren't lessons to learn -- I like the reports of Ford planning to bring parts mfg. capacity back in house or in country, like chips, or the new battery mfg alliance. I keep telling myself, be patient. Be grateful.
 

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Ford told us the majority of dealers lost allocation from their original estimate to their final number. Not because of the conversion formula so much as they knew they had to reduce the number they thought they could actually produce. And that is actually coming true now with the shortages, delays, etc....

But in the grand scheme of this thread, it really doesn't matter if you're number 10 in line and your dealer got 12 allocations. The chances someone outside of the top 12 actually could jump number 10 and fill up those 12 allocations is very high. There is simply no guarantee based on where you are in line if you're going to get a '21. Of course, the higher you are, the better your chances, but it certainly isn't a guarantee. We've all figured that out by looking at what's getting pulled way down the line.
 

Qman68

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I just stopped by my very helpful dealer today and talked about my place in the MY2021 build line.
I learned something about the process at Ford, and I'm requesting validation @Granger Ford @Zach@Granger on this information.

First: I was close to missing out on the MY2021 being reservation 30 of 19 allocations at my dealer. However, after math and conversion numbers, I had an 80% chance to fall within the MY2021 build schedule. To my delight, I was number 16 on the conversion/reservation schedule. I WAS three builds inside the MY2021 and was happy to hear that.

Second: After finding out that I was 16 of 19 allocations, I was told that Ford revised the allocations DOWN by 25%, and now my dealer was only receiving 14 allocations!!!

WTH Ford?

I'm requesting validation of allocation adjustments from other Ford dealers. I'm not sure if some went up and mine went down, or ALL allocations went DOWN?

If there were "adjustments" both up and down based on the dealership, then Ford has some explaining to do as we looked for dealers based on the probability of getting a MY2021 per reservation timestamp. If all of them went down, then I assume it's Ford's response to the chip shortage and possible build limits... even though Ford said it was not cutting production on the Bronco. Clawing back 25% of allocations is definitely cutting production.

Third: looks like I'm still not getting a MY2021 because of reasons...
Did you receive a VIN number?
 
 


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