The IFS vs SFA Thread

[JimmyDean]

They don't sell in the same numbers but they do share a market segment. This is definitely my opinion but if Toyota brought back removable roofs I think they would steal a huge chunk of Jeep's customers. Exactly what Ford is planning to do.

they barely if any share in the same market segment. I would say 1 out of every 2 jeep (wranglers) I see has modifications. I out of every 20-30 4runners is modded, not even 1 out of every 2 is a 4x4, maybe 1 out of 5, and 1 out of 15-20 is a TRD. 4runners are almost exclusively grocery getters and soccer moms driving them because they make sense for that purpose, and purchased because they are good for shuttling the kids, getting groceries, decent mileage, and reliable. Hell, they even tow fairly well for their size.

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[Randy92Fox]

they barely if any share in the same market segment. I would say 1 out of every 2 jeep I see has modifications. I out of every 20-30 4runners is modded, not even 1 out of every 2 is a 4x4, maybe 1 out of 5, and 1 out of 15-20 is a TRD. 4runners are almost exclusively grocery getters and soccer moms driving them because they make sense for that purpose.

Interesting, it may be partially a geographical thing then? Here in the PNW I see more of the current gen 4runners with light mods (ladder rack, small lift, all terrains) than i do without and I actually see probably about 50-50 current gen wranglers with anything done to them. LOTS of modded YJs and TJs though. In fact when I see a 4runner with the factory street tires it honestly stands out to me as a rare occurrence lol.

 

[Randy92Fox]

Yeah the FJ Cruiser sold so well Toyota discontinued it, and the 4Runner didn't start selling at its currunt volume until all of the competitors in its segment vanished (Xterra, H3, FJ Cruiser, and the Grand Cherokee got mall rated).

If the 4Runner serves the same market segment as the Wrangler, why are they not out on the trails. I think I have seen two current gen 4Runners out in the dirt in the ten years Toyota has been building them. Wranglers on the other hand are about all you see on the trails…

Because the off-road capable SUV segment is about more than rock crawling trails? Also you just stated yourself that there are many more Jeeps so that would explain why you see more. If there are 10x as many Wranglers than Jeeps than I would expect to see 10x as many offroad as well.

And there are many FJs selling at near original MSRP and they haven't even made them in what, 5 years? 11 on my local craigslist right now for over $25k. Economy timing was the biggest reason it "failed". Production started in 2007 and the economy tanked right after. When the economy goes down people buy less SUVs hence why so many others failed. Now the economy is good again so people are buying SUVs hence why ford stopped making cars for the US altogether excluding the Mustang.

 

[JimmyDean]

Interesting, it may be partially a geographical thing then? Here in the PNW I see more of the current gen 4runners with light mods (ladder rack, small lift, all terrains) than i do without and I actually see probably about 50-50 current gen wranglers with anything done to them. LOTS of modded YJs and TJs though. In fact when I see a 4runner with the factory street tires it honestly stands out to me as a rare occurrence lol.

could be geographical, but if I look outside my office window and count them on the interstate, I'll count about the same number of wranglers vs 4runners, but half the wranglers will be lifted, bumpers, etc, while I MIGHT see a modded 4runner, MIGHT see a 4wd one even.

as for being in the same market, maybe the TRD Pro competes with the wrangler sport, but it costs more than 50% as much to do so...a TRD Pro in no way, shape, or form competes in the same market space as a Rubicon, and they are at the same price point (the Rubicon actually starts about 6500, >10%, cheaper).

do not get me wrong, I really like our 4runner, it has been a good little grocery getter and doing some light work, but that's it. It does what we got it to do. I hope to replace it with a Bronco though, so that it can do more.

 

[Randy92Fox]

I am talking just off maintained roads, not even hard trails. I would say the Jeep to 4Runner ratio I have personally seen offroad is well over 100:1. Hard to say since I have seen more Jeeps than I'll ever be able to remember and very few of any other manufacturer's late model 4x4 off road.

So the bad economy was the reason for the FJ Cruisers lack of success, yet Toyota chose to discontinue the FJ Cruiser during one of the biggest economic resurgences in U.S. history? That doesn't add up…

So why was the JK which debuted at almost the same time unaffected by these same factors?

Look at the consumer confidence graph from about 2006 to present. Consumer confidence did start coming back up in 2008 but didn't hit pre-recession levels until 2017-2018.

 

[Jalisurr]

I am talking just off maintained roads, not even hard trails. I would say the Jeep to 4Runner ratio I have personally seen offroad is well over 100:1. Hard to say since I have seen more Jeeps than I'll ever be able to remember and very few of any other manufacturer's late model 4x4 off road.

So the bad economy was the reason for the FJ Cruisers lack of success, yet Toyota chose to discontinue the FJ Cruiser during one of the biggest economic resurgences in U.S. history? That doesn't add up…

So why was the JK which debuted at almost the same time unaffected by these same factors?

Look at sales figures for the Wrangler. They absolutely see a major dip during the recession. The 4Runner and Wrangler follow almost exactly the same curve. Those are the only two who had the established name to carry them through the bad times, the H3/Xterra/FJ Cruiser were all launched shortly before the recession and then killed off by corporate when the sales plummeted during it.

 

[Jalisurr]

could be geographical, but if I look outside my office window and count them on the interstate, I'll count about the same number of wranglers vs 4runners, but half the wranglers will be lifted, bumpers, etc, while I MIGHT see a modded 4runner, MIGHT see a 4wd one even.

as for being in the same market, maybe the TRD Pro competes with the wrangler sport, but it costs more than 50% as much to do so...a TRD Pro in no way, shape, or form competes in the same market space as a Rubicon, and they are at the same price point (the Rubicon actually starts about 6500, >10%, cheaper).

do not get me wrong, I really like our 4runner, it has been a good little grocery getter and doing some light work, but that's it. It does what we got it to do. I hope to replace it with a Bronco though, so that it can do more.

I see tons of 4Runners up here and the majority of the new ones I see are 4wd or TRD Pro models, and many of those have some light mods - I think the convertible nature of the Wrangler appeals less to people up in the north.

 

[Jalisurr]

Why don't you post up some actual figures so we can look at this a bit more analytically. I am aware Wrangler sales had a dip during the recession, but my recollection is that it wasn't much of a dip.

By the way, the Xterra came into being long before the recession hit.

Sure thing. Here we go:

So we can see that both hit their lowest point in 2009 and then recover strongly. Clearly, yes, the wrangler had less of a dip, and recovered more quickly than the 4Runner. I have two thoughts on that:
1) The higher price point as you mentioned will play a factor, people can afford a cheap jeep during the recession but not the more expensive toyota. I'd be interested to see a breakdown by trim on the wrangler to see if rubicon sales numbers more closely follow the 4Runner's curve.
2) The 4Runner launched an all new model in 2009 where the JK had been around for a couple years. That may also be a factor as to why the Toyota took longer to recover and has the huge dip right at 2009.

 

[JimmyDean]

I see tons of 4Runners up here and the majority of the new ones I see are 4wd or TRD Pro models, and many of those have some light mods - I think the convertible nature of the Wrangler appeals less to people up in the north.

You get snow. We don't know what snow is. (We actually have gotten it a couple of times for a day - 3 days in the last few years, not 2019 though, rarely dropped below 40.

 

[Jalisurr]

So I just looked it up the figures. The JK's worst sales year was 82,044 in 2009 (still better than 7 out of 10 TJ model years) which still blows the FJ Cruiser's best year's sales of 56,225 in 2006 out of the water.

Absolutely. It would have taken years of success and incremental improvements for the FJ to be able to match the wrangler and one way or another it didn't get that chance - is anybody expecting that the Bronco to be beating Wrangler sales numbers in its first couple years? That seems very optimistic.

 

[Randy92Fox]

You get snow. We don't know what snow is. (We actually have gotten it a couple of times for a day - 3 days in the last few years, not 2019 though, rarely dropped below 40.

I was just noticing today how there was some fresh snow on the hills above my town and I should go for a drive! I'm not quite as north as Dave though and the coast is about 2 hours from me (beach that we can drive on) so I still get some appeal from the convertible top.

 

[Jalisurr]

Absolutely. It would have taken years of success and incremental improvements for the FJ to be able to match the wrangler and one way or another it didn't get that chance - is anybody expecting that the Bronco to be beating Wrangler sales numbers in its first couple years? That seems very optimistic.

Just to add to this thought, I will also say that the strong used value for FJ cruisers today indicates to me that there was some potential there if they had continued on to be able to see our current offroad SUV loving market.

 

[Stampede.Offroad]

Sure thing. Here we go:
...

Posted this somewhere else here before ...

You'll notice that the 4Runner used to regularly outsell the Wrangler, and so did the Xterra. When the Unlimited came around, that all changed, and the only real advantage the other units had was taken away, more space and doors to jamb in useless imaginary stuff and people.

In the recent TFL interview with Jeep chief engineer Pete Whatshisface he said the 4 door now outsells the 2 door by 9:1. Even during the worst years of the recession the Wrangler was selling more units than it did ~5 years before -- and those other machines might have had a good couple of years after launch but their sales were declining before the recession when people had cash to throw around. Their failure was their own, not unfortunate circumstance. Blaming their decline and failure on the recession is a fallacy -- they just plain failed to offer what the market wanted.

What we don't know yet, is how Ford is going to try to reformulate their failings. Would a comfy ride on fully independent suspension with 4 doors and a removable top be the magic combo; just IFS and a top; how much of the top needs to be "removable"; does there needs to be lots of space to jamb imaginary stuff, or just space for imaginary people?

 

[Randy92Fox]

Posted this somewhere else here before ...

You'll notice that the 4Runner used to regularly outsell the Wrangler, and so did the Xterra. When the Unlimited came around, that all changed, and the only real advantage the other units had was taken away, more space and doors to jamb in useless imaginary stuff and people.

In the recent TFL interview with Jeep chief engineer Pete Whatshisface he said the 4 door now outsells the 2 door by 9:1. Even during the worst years of the recession the Wrangler was selling more units than it did ~5 years before -- and those other machines might have had a good couple of years after launch but their sales were declining before the recession when people had cash to throw around. Their failure was their own, not unfortunate circumstance. Blaming their decline and failure on the recession is a fallacy -- they just plain failed to offer what the market wanted.

What we don't know yet, is how Ford is going to try to reformulate their failings. Would a comfy ride on fully independent suspension with 4 doors and a removable top be the magic combo; just IFS and a top; how much of the top needs to be "removable"; does there needs to be lots of space to jamb imaginary stuff, or just space for imaginary people?

Personally I still disagree with the opinion on the recession. As Dave mentioned the strong resale of the FJ to this day shows that there was/is a demand for the vehicle. The stat I would be interested to see would be in the years after the other vehicles ceased production, what did new car buyers buy instead? You have to think a potential Xterra buyer probably went for a 4runner or Wrangler.

And the whole top needs to come off or I'm buying a Gladiator! Lol.

 

[jamanrr]

Gladiators are small trucks, very small a mid sized Tacoma or even new ranger look bigger. I'm at the stage in life where I have need to a have a full sized f150 at least. When I was younger I had a supercharged frontier and similarly the x terra came with the same motor. Younger families or people tend to buy more of the mid sized SUVs while older ones get the full size explorer and Yukons. Demographics play more of a key role in sales than anything. Of course things can change but utility and offroad ability go further than quirky designs and short term model launches. Making a vehicle that can adapt and change is the key and jeep has done that with the wrangler. Yet to be seen if ford can sustain and maintain like it.

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