Bronco Pricing Forecast

[AZ_BRONC]

I think they will do even better than the Wranglers in resale for at least several years. There are a TON of Wranglers out there but Broncos will remain scarce so as long as demand remains even middling the market is in favor of being a Bronco owner, not a Bronco buyer.

Sponsored

 

[Lowdogg]

A car is not an appreciating investment. For me, since I intend to keep the Bronco for a long time, I‘m not worried about values in the next 5+ years.
I’ve only had my Area 51 Wildtrak for 10 days, but its fantastic so far. Hopefully it holds up mechanically. If it does, by the time I get around to selling it, the current high price won’t be a huge issue.

 

[jb56]

A car is not an appreciating investment. For me, since I intend to keep the Bronco for a long time, I‘m not worried about values in the next 5+ years.
I’ve only had my Area 51 Wildtrak for 10 days, but its fantastic so far. Hopefully it holds up mechanically. If it does, by the time I get around to selling it, the current high price won’t be a huge issue.

but vehicles have been an appreciating asset over the past 18 months which is causing people to behave differently.

And once they level off and start to depreciate like they did historically, people will change behavior again.

if I can sell the bronco in a year and not lose any money, that would be great. And that forecast is just one among many things to consider

 

[ctandc]

Interest rates are going up, there is a huge glut of used cars now. The economy is slowing down. The government injection of money has slowed down. Production is now up to 3,000-4,000 a week. The question isn't whether there is excess supply now. The question is whether there will be enough broncos available in a year that you could buy one for under MSRP or get a lightly used one for a significant discount.

And if we hit excess supply in say, January, I think those things would start to happen.

A huge glut of used cars? Not in VA. Where are you at? I just attended a dealer auction with a dealer friend - prices are not dropping and demand is actually increasing for used vehicles in our market.

 

[Lowdogg]

but vehicles have been an appreciating asset over the past 18 months which is causing people to behave differently.

And once they level off and start to depreciate like they did historically, people will change behavior again.

if I can sell the bronco in a year and not lose any money, that would be great. And that forecast is just one among many things to consider

Yes, I traded in my 6 year old BMW for $3k more than it was worth 18 months ago, so the math worked well for me, but when I made my reservation way back when, it wasn’t with that expectation.

I don’t think any of us know where prices will be for anything in one year, stocks, houses, bitcoin, whatever. I’m with other posters in that I think demand for this particular vehicle will exceed supply for a while. I think a better optioned model like the WT may provide a better short-term store of value than a less optioned model.

 

[jb56]

A huge glut of used cars? Not in VA. Where are you at? I just attended a dealer auction with a dealer friend - prices are not dropping and demand is actually increasing for used vehicles in our market.

I’m in Utah.

Its impressive if demand for used vehicles in your area is increasing, while the economy is slowing and the interest rates are rising, while new vehicle production is increasing.

Even Broncos are more and more commonly available here. I just checked the local online newspaper listing and stopped counting at 38 used Broncos listed.

just searching Nationally though, average used car prices have settled a lot and have actually started to decline in some classes of vehicle.

 

[navi]

There are plenty of posts here about folks selling their used cars for way more than they paid new. Historically, that would be considered very rare, and this is a very small slice of the internet so take it with a grain of salt.
A year from now, will your Bronco sell for more than what you paid? Logic says no way, but I guess you can always hope.

 

[LSBronco13]

Hey Everyone! TL;DR - Do you think we'll see excess Bronco supply in the next year or two and whether we will see significant price drops in the new and lightly used Bronco market.

Longer version:

I'm very excited about my Bronco (Wildtrak, Area 51, Lux) to be delivered in a few weeks. Although I hope that we will love our Bronco and keep it for years I'm just slightly worried that we are going to see massive price drops in vehicles over the next year or so.

My dealer is selling a near-identical bronco for $13,000 over sticker, so as of right now, you'd think there's no chance of being very upside down in a bronco. And I'm not looking to flip mine.

It seems to me that there are a ton of used cars on the market and that Ford in particular is starting to produce way more Broncos. Two years ago and before the Pandemic, I never would have paid sticker price for a vehicle And although the Bronco is an awesome vehicle, paying $61,000 for it makes me a little uncomfortable.

I talked to a regional Ford rep and he said privately that he thought the pricing on Broncos would cool, but probably wouldn't drop below sticker, although he thought the market generally would see huge excess inventory.

But if Ford is really putting out thousands of broncos a week, will we hit excess supply? Will there continue to be massive demand for a relatively small SUV that gets 17 MPG and costs over $60k? Will demand wane for the higher trims?

On the other hand, it seems like Jeep sells about 3800 Wranglers per week most years.

When did you place your reservation? MM/Day/YY ?

 

[jb56]

When did you place your reservation? MM/Day/YY ?

7/14/20 in the morning.
It was built on June 22, 2022 and shipped three days ago. Delivery is around July 21, 2022

 

[Tunagates]

Hey Everyone! TL;DR - Do you think we'll see excess Bronco supply in the next year or two and whether we will see significant price drops in the new and lightly used Bronco market.

Longer version:

I'm very excited about my Bronco (Wildtrak, Area 51, Lux) to be delivered in a few weeks. Although I hope that we will love our Bronco and keep it for years I'm just slightly worried that we are going to see massive price drops in vehicles over the next year or so.

My dealer is selling a near-identical bronco for $13,000 over sticker, so as of right now, you'd think there's no chance of being very upside down in a bronco. And I'm not looking to flip mine.

It seems to me that there are a ton of used cars on the market and that Ford in particular is starting to produce way more Broncos. Two years ago and before the Pandemic, I never would have paid sticker price for a vehicle And although the Bronco is an awesome vehicle, paying $61,000 for it makes me a little uncomfortable.

I talked to a regional Ford rep and he said privately that he thought the pricing on Broncos would cool, but probably wouldn't drop below sticker, although he thought the market generally would see huge excess inventory.

But if Ford is really putting out thousands of broncos a week, will we hit excess supply? Will there continue to be massive demand for a relatively small SUV that gets 17 MPG and costs over $60k? Will demand wane for the higher trims?

On the other hand, it seems like Jeep sells about 3800 Wranglers per week most years.

You haven’t taken delivery yet and your dealer has a near-identical model marked up by 13k?? Dude - youre not out of the woods yet … that 13k ADM might be applied to yours as well. Good luck!

 

[Hudman316]

A huge glut of used cars? Not in VA. Where are you at? I just attended a dealer auction with a dealer friend - prices are not dropping and demand is actually increasing for used vehicles in our market.

Exactly! The car lots in Michigan are empty compared to their normal amount of inventory. Used car prices are high due the lack of supply.

 

[Who iz]

Have fun in Bronco! It is a truck which is built to enjoy- and use to the fullest.
Do not care about its value to others. It is priceless to me.
Take care to love your family, work hard, Love the gift of life you have been given.
After I am finished my trucks, tools, prized possessions will simply be 'Dead man's stuff'.
WHO IZ will not care at that point.

 

[ctandc]

I think what some people seem to be missing, and again it's all about the region / market, is that inventory is down. New, used etc. What this means for many dealerships, especially larger auto groups that own multiple dealerships, is that they can't sustain the volume of sales they are used to. The same volume that allows them to sell at lower prices. It's a simple numbers game.

I can tell you what a friend of mine told me a few weeks ago. He oversees the service departments at a good-sized auto group. He's good friends with the operations manager. A while back (2021) this guy had told his used car managers to ease back their purchases for inventory at the auctions. Prices were climbing - the prices DEALERS were paying at auctions.

Interest rates ticked up. Many figured buying would slow down, but the finance advance models of lending institutions kept ticking upwards.

It's one thing to have some buyers pay above MSRP for an in demand vehicle, such as the Bronco. It's happened plenty of times before. The difference is that many of these buyers were having to put either cash down to finance, pay cash w/o financing or use trade in equity to brace the deal for the financing. Not now. Finance advance models has always been where you see prices start to fall. Dealers can't keep selling new or used cars at inflated prices IF the lending institutions won't finance the higher amounts. But finance advance numbers have NOT dropped yet.

With interest rates ticking upwards (still takes awhile for top tier credit auto loans to see significant gains in actual rates) a lot of potential buyers - likely waiting for prices to drop - are now pulling the trigger before interest rate increase nullify any benefit to any possible price drops.

For cash buyers, a lot of this doesn't matter - BUT most people who can pay cash for a $40K or higher vehicle also know that if the interest rate of a loan to purchase that vehicle is LOWER than the return rate they can still get on that same money (even with the market lately) it's silly to use that cash for a purchase right now.

There are other factory too that I don't think a lot of people have considered and it's directly correlated to the real estate market and what happened because of COVID and lockdowns.

Companies were faced with continuing operations for their business with lockdowns in place, so they changed / opened their policies and practices to allow their workers who were able to do their job from home to do just that. Initially most figured it would be temporary.

Then companies started to realize that much of their operations could be done by a workforce that didn't have to come into the office everyday. They then realized that they could significantly reduce overhead by downsizing offices spaces (leasing, utilities, building maintenance etc) and STILL get their work done. Then many workers who could and were allowed to work from home, realized it was like a pay bump not having to drive into the office everyday.

Gas, vehicle maintenance, parking, day car, eating out etc - it actually reduced their expenses. A lot of these workers like the convenience of working from home as well. It was win / win for many companies and their workforce.

But now people were realizing they didn't NEED to live so close to the urban areas where their offices were. Real estate values had continued to climb and many home owners realized they were sitting on equity. The idea of getting more house (since any house would seem smaller when you are working AND living in it everyday, many times with kids in the household and needing home office space they really didn't need before) for the same money by buying something further away from urban areas helped.

Those same houses near large population centers had plenty of buyers - many of them investment groups - because there is still a demand from renters to live near city centers, even if they don't have to for work.

So guess what happens when people move from urban areas where things are more concentrated? They either now need to buy vehicles (where was before they walked / used public transportation) OR they now didn't have to use fuel efficient, smaller vehicles to commute in (since they aren't commuting as much or not at all). Then you have the trends of people cashing in on their home sales, and retiring, using RVs etc.

Supply chain issues just exaggerated all this. Auto makers guessed vehicle demand would go down during lockdowns and reduced 'just in time' logistics demands. Then consumer electronics demand RAMPED UP at the same time (people spending more time at home - TVs, computers, monitors etc etc) and by the time many auto makers tried to ramp orders back up - the demand now exceeded supply as many suppliers were reduced in workforce or shut down via lockdowns and restrictions.

Comparing what's going on now to ANY other time - especially talking about the automobile industry - is simple comparing apples to oranges.

Most people won't read this novel - that's fine. I just happen to have worked around the logistics periphery and personally have acquaintances who deal with these issues everyday.

 

[jb56]

You haven’t taken delivery yet and your dealer has a near-identical model marked up by 13k?? Dude - youre not out of the woods yet … that 13k ADM might be applied to yours as well. Good luck!

The bronco on the lot has 600 miles. This dealership doesn’t add ADM to special orders
I have that in writing at least

 

[LSBronco13]

7/14/20 in the morning.
It was built on June 22, 2022 and shipped three days ago. Delivery is around July 21, 2022

Mine was July 18th 2020. WT Lux Modular B MIC top Hitch.

Sponsored