Multiple Reservations with Single Order Intent (Poll)

How many Bronco's did you put orders in for when only intending to order one?


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Bronc-O

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I think this poll is interesting but I don’t think it tells you anything about delivery.

Ford knows exactly how many multiple orders they have from the same household. Not to mention they know how many total reservations they have — we have no idea. They know how they expect production to ramp and what their max output should be.

The number of people that will actually buy 2 (or more) Broncos is vanishingly small, so for projection purposes Ford would just eliminate all those multiple orders. Then they apply whatever range of conversion (reservation to order) they think likely (very conservative because Ford doesn’t have historical data on reservation to order ratio) to come up with an expected range of actual orders. Ford may use different ratios for different planning purposes (highest assumed conversions for communicating how long you may have to wait and possibly lower conversions for manufacturing planning, etc.).

Obviously I’ve just made all the above up, but Ford is doing something along these lines when they are indicating that orders may stretch into 2022. They are not just taking total reservations and thinking - “hey we will be producing the same # of Broncos as reservations”.
That's a good point that few likely thought of. Ford is certainly able to run a program to tie reservations to accounts regardless when they were placed.





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Haulin455

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Based on what I've read on this forum over the past couple of weeks I thought more people would have 2 reservations honestly.
 

toystwo

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Ford is in the same boat as we are.
Not even close for the reasons noted above, they know total reservations, duplicate reservations and production ramp. We know none of that.
but we now know 30% of people are hedging. More than we knew 2 days ago.
We know that 30% of the people on this forum that answered this poll have two reservations. That may be reflective of the duplicates in the total population of reservations (which we don‘t know anyway) but most likely it is not.
 

Bronc-O

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Based on what I've read on this forum over the past couple of weeks I thought more people would have 2 reservations honestly.
I think many of those with more than one reservation don't buy vehicles very often or have done little research on dealers in their area until after pushing the reserve button. They listen to every opinion no matter the source and then panic when they see something that's probably just speculation. It's already been confirmed by Ford that you can change dealers when you place an order many times in several threads, but people are still asking that question.
 

Bronc-O

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Not even close for the reasons noted above, they know total reservations, duplicate reservations and production ramp. We know none of that.

We know that 30% of the people on this forum that answered this poll have two reservations. That may be reflective of the duplicates in the total population of reservations (which we don‘t know anyway) but most likely it is not.
You've gotta believe that in the real world, most people haven't even considered placing more than 1 reservation. They're not hearing all of the rumors and speculation and fear we do, so most likely made 1 reservation at a dealer close to them.
 
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edgeflyer

edgeflyer

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I don't think anyone on this forum is under the illusion that this pole could accurately project their reservation, but what it does is gives some hope and encouragement to people feeling a little down about these click bate headlines of "If you purchased a Bronco, you'll be the only one not driving a flying car by then" stories. If 30% of all people who put a hundred dollars down have more than one iron in the fire, and you just made a reservation, it is safe to say that you will get your Bronco faster than the current news leads you to believe (that are based on reservations including duplicates).
 

dejones64

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I should have researched models before reserving. I Reserved the Base model. Then saw/thought maybe we can't change the model at order time. So I then reserved the Big Bend model, which I'll most likely go with.
 

PaBronco

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I reserved a 2 door FE on day 1. Day later I reserved a base. A few days later I created another Ford account and reserved a Wildtrack 2 door and 4 door. I have a good dealer that isn't going to gouge me, and will accept X plan. Figure I will sell the FE and a 4 door Wildtrack, to help pay for the base and 2 door Wildtrack.
Hope that strategy works out for you.
 

toystwo

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If 30% of all people who put a hundred dollars down have more than one iron in the fire, and you just made a reservation, it is safe to say that you will get your Bronco faster than the current news leads you to believe (that are based on reservations including duplicates).
The news stories are all based on what Ford has said. I just don’t get why you think Ford hasn’t already done exactly what you are trying to do (except they actually have the information to do it) when they said some may not receive their units until 2022. You really think Ford just looked at total reservations compared that to what they can produce in 2021 and then announced that some may not receive their order until 2022?

And the likelihood that general population reserved duplicates as same rate as this sample from the forum is nearly nil.

All that said, I think Ford would lean to making the projection extremely conservative to avoid additional disappointment in when deliveries will occur.
 

guernsej

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I reserved a 2 door FE on day 1. Day later I reserved a base. A few days later I created another Ford account and reserved a Wildtrack 2 door and 4 door. I have a good dealer that isn't going to gouge me, and will accept X plan. Figure I will sell the FE and a 4 door Wildtrack, to help pay for the base and 2 door Wildtrack.
1.) Douche move

2.) I don't think it's going to work out the way you're hoping it will
 

BroncoJay

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I reserved a 2 door FE on day 1. Day later I reserved a base. A few days later I created another Ford account and reserved a Wildtrack 2 door and 4 door. I have a good dealer that isn't going to gouge me, and will accept X plan. Figure I will sell the FE and a 4 door Wildtrack, to help pay for the base and 2 door Wildtrack.
If you can afford to buy that
Many broncos but yet ur hoping for X plan pricing?!?
 

Garbone

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I thought I had a reservation with my local dealer but Ford never sent me a number so I made one online also. If I do indeed have 2 I will probably ask the dealer if he wants me to order both and refuse delivery on one. I can then order the same rig in white or gray and choose my color. Hopefully the dealer would scratch my back for giving them a Bronco for their own inventory..
 
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edgeflyer

edgeflyer

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toystwo,
I just want to say that you have your opinion, I have mine. I feel like you are just stiring the pot and had a nice little reply written up, bet decided I wasn't going to go that route. I will respond one last time to you regarding this, then I may just become a viewer of the site as I appreciate all of the people on here, but am over the people who take things out of context and turn them into an argument. Regardless of your thought, there are a lot of people who have participated in this poll and I'm sure appreciate seeing the numbers for what ever it means to them.

For this question:
"You really think Ford just looked at total reservations compared that to what they can produce in 2021 and then announced that some may not receive their order until 2022?".

Ford has NO IDEA how many reservations will be cancelled. Have you been contacted by them with the question in my poll? I haven't. Wouldn't surprise me if the the Ford people aren't watching this poll. If I was working for them I would absolutely take that data into consideration. If anything, I would say that outside of this forum, even less reservations will convert to orders as a good bit of those folks have much less passion for the Bronco than we do and will realize its either too expensive or not practical enough for their families. Your are contradicting yourself by saying " this poll can't reflect the entire market", then saying Ford can? You can't compare historical trends and use the same algorithms for the Bronco. The Bronco has shaken the auto industry up and no one, including Ford was prepared for the overwhelming interest. For this reason, Ford is not going to be any more accurate than anyone else until orders are place. Why do you think production and delivery targets have already been moved. Couple that with covid and we're all playing it by ear.

Isn't this another one of your posts on another thread?:
I know nothing of Ford production but I wonder if they really are going to produce 6,000 saleable units (dealers x 2) - shut down production to wait for those 6,000 units to arrive at dealers (weeks) take orders (over what - minimum 2 week period) and then resume production in reserved order batching. Makes no logistical sense to me.
 
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Papa Smurf

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What started out as a single reservation became 2. The first email confirmation came with Big Bend instead of the Outer Banks and I didn’t trust the system, nor the claimed ability to change styles. Immediately reserved the 2nd. A week later when the FAQ page changed about changing dealers, I started a 2nd account and spread 2 Badlands reservations to 2 different dealerships in hopes to avoid ADMs. If I could afford (and hide from wife) the second Bronco, I’d do it!
 

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