7th Gen 2030 Bronco Coming End of 2029, Together With Electric Bronco EV (TE1 Platform)

[bloominguez]

Not to pick on you, John, but your comments reminded me of a few thoughts I've had on EVs. Some of my comments go beyond what you said, just building on what you wrote.

I agree with most of what you said, except I don’t think we’re 20 years out from EV’s becoming mainstream. Technology develops at such a rapid rate, that EV adoption will probably come sooner rather than later. Just a wild ass guess on my part .

We should not equate "technology" with "chemistry." We see rapid technological advances and think that batteries can change just as fast. Not the case. Changing circuit designs and coming up with new software applications (technology) is not the same as finding the right combination of elements to store large amounts of energy quickly and efficiently (chemistry).

EV advancements depend more on chemistry than technology. Therefore I think EVs will have some fundamental trade-offs for a while (range, charging speed, or reliability/lifespan if extremely fast charging is used). Maybe there will be challenges on portions of the electric grid. It may be hard for people without the ability to charge at home, if they park on the street, for example. EVs may not perform as well in cold climates. Will EVs last as long as ICE vehicles, such as my '95 Integra which is still running just fine (knock on wood), or will they require major battery replacements?

So I disagree with you on one thing: I don't think EVs will be mainstream "sooner rather than later." But the slow, steady advancements in battery chemistry are enough to *gradually* tip the scales towards EVs. Once enough manufacturers produce EVs, consumers will buy them and infrastructure will follow, etc.

I believe you’re right, the future is electric. The ICE has had a good run, but like everything else, it has run its course. The market will come up with range and charging solutions that today seem unfathomable.

I don't disagree. Which means that there will be plenty of time to buy EVs in the future. No need to rush into that future.

With that in mind, *now* is the time to buy gas guzzlers! Preferably with manual transmissions! I say that because this may be our last chance to get a certain type of car. Don't miss your chance and regret it! We're not quite at the end, but you know what I mean.

I don't say that as someone who doesn't care about the environment or anything like that. Almost all my cars and motorcycles until recently have gotten great mileage, and I've kept them running for a long time. I also don't say that because I hate EVs. They are fun, in a different way (particularly electric motorcycles, in my opinion), and I'll surely own one in a few years--just not yet.

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[Tunagates]

No hybrid? What a waste, an electric car is fine for city use but no thanks for living out here nor going any great distance.

Agreed dude. I have an 4 door FE and 2 door base mansquatch and my wife has a Mach e. Cant take the Mach E anywhere besides local. Love it, but its not the answer. Big mistake throwing all of your chips in the EV market. Fueling up has to be at least as efficient as ICE for society to stick w it.

 

[MLRey]

Assuming the technology continues to improve at its current pace, the EV outlined here has a good chance to be my current Bronco replacement in 5-6 years. I own both an EV and Bronco currently and adore both for different reasons.

The technology will improve but don't expect large improvements on the vehicle side. The lithium batteries will get a bit better but we're talking a few percent at most. Same for the efficiency of the motors. There are hard technical reasons that limit how much can be improved. They've made big improvements in the last 10 years but that won't continue at the same rate. You simply can't get around some technical limits. The biggest area for improvement is in the charging infrastructure. Except for Tesla charging it's all over the place in terms of availability, reliability and speed. Charging rates can vary by a factor of 10 from different fast charging locations, usually for no known reason. Better charging station availability and consistent reliable high speed charging will make a big difference. I would go for a hybrid Bronco if it was available but that will have to wait for a few years.

EVs are very good for some types of driving but are not a complete solution. The only way I see them ever fully replacing internal combustion engines is if a miracle occurs and someone figures out how to make solid state batteries for a reasonable price. Unfortunately solid state batteries are like fusion power, always 30 years away from being commercially available.

 

[orion]

I’ve been a beta tester and now regular rider of Waymo autonomous vehicles since 2018, in Tempe, AZ where they are being developed. I order up a vehicle on my phone, it shows up in a few minutes, I sit in the back and work or listen to music and rest or play a game or read, no one in the driver’s seat. By 2030 this thread will look hilarious.

As for the next few years, a hybrid really would be nice. Love our Camry hybrid and it’s daily driver 55mpg. Bronco is for smiles per gallon.

You are a brave man! I would never do that... I like being in control with all the idiots on the roads these days...

 

[BroncoMike75]

I agree with both sides of the discussion that technology is constantly evolving.

The one topic no one is really talking about is that it's thrown in our face all the time about "foreign oil" we rely on. The US does not need to rely on foreign oil (we just choose to use foreign oil). What about foreign materials to make all these batteries for the potentially mandated EV's? The US has one area of lithium in Nevada. We will now be depending on foreign lithium. I'm concerned that we are just replacing one natural resource for another. Need to find a safer renewable resource than oil or lithium.

 

[orion]

Wait.

That sarcastic reply is the dick thing to say, but not the climate change denier bragging about committing crimes because he’s a snowflake triggered by just the thought of EVs?

The priorities on display here.

His reply was also sarcastic!

I'll just say this, hasn't the Earth been warming ever since the last ice age? "Global Warming" is now "Climate Change". Weren't sea levels supposed to have covered parts of Florida and other coastal places by now??? Fear mongering? I mean if we stay the current course, the planet will be dead by the time our children are adults... B.S. is all I have to say about it...

And what about the mining that is required for all these batteries? What about all of these dead batteries, what are we going to do with all of those? Your trading an existing "bad" for a new "bad"...

Article on EV batteries:
https://fee.org/articles/the-environmental-downside-of-electric-vehicles/

And another:
https://magazine.northeast.aaa.com/...ectric-car-batteries-bad-for-the-environment/

 

[John Auer]

When's the current generation refresh coming?

MY’25?

Not to pick on you, John, but your comments reminded me of a few thoughts I've had on EVs. Some of my comments go beyond what you said, just building on what you wrote.




We should not equate "technology" with "chemistry." We see rapid technological advances and think that batteries can change just as fast. Not the case. Changing circuit designs and coming up with new software applications (technology) is not the same as finding the right combination of elements to store large amounts of energy quickly and efficiently (chemistry).

EV advancements depend more on chemistry than technology. Therefore I think EVs will have some fundamental trade-offs for a while (range, charging speed, or reliability/lifespan if extremely fast charging is used). Maybe there will be challenges on portions of the electric grid. It may be hard for people without the ability to charge at home, if they park on the street, for example. EVs may not perform as well in cold climates. Will EVs last as long as ICE vehicles, such as my '95 Integra which is still running just fine (knock on wood), or will they require major battery replacements?

So I disagree with you on one thing: I don't think EVs will be mainstream "sooner rather than later." But the slow, steady advancements in battery chemistry are enough to *gradually* tip the scales towards EVs. Once enough manufacturers produce EVs, consumers will buy them and infrastructure will follow, etc.




I don't disagree. Which means that there will be plenty of time to buy EVs in the future. No need to rush into that future.

With that in mind, *now* is the time to buy gas guzzlers! Preferably with manual transmissions! I say that because this may be our last chance to get a certain type of car. Don't miss your chance and regret it! We're not quite at the end, but you know what I mean.

I don't say that as someone who doesn't care about the environment or anything like that. Almost all my cars and motorcycles until recently have gotten great mileage, and I've kept them running for a long time. I also don't say that because I hate EVs. They are fun, in a different way (particularly electric motorcycles, in my opinion), and I'll surely own one in a few years--just not yet.

I’m not jumping on the EV bandwagon yet, I’ll leave that to the early adopters. My brother and his wife have a Tesla Model 3 and a newly purchased Ford Lightning. Both are great vehicles and fun to drive, as long as you’re not going anywhere. I know you can drive coast to coast with an EV, I just can’t be bothered with the charging hassle. I’ll wait until the market sorts things out. Cheers!

 

[DryYourTears]

His reply was also sarcastic!

I'll just say this, hasn't the Earth been warming ever since the last ice age? "Global Warming" is now "Climate Change". Weren't sea levels supposed to have covered parts of Florida and other coastal places by now??? Fear mongering? I mean if we stay the current course, the planet will be dead by the time our children are adults... B.S. is all I have to say about it...

And what about the mining that is required for all these batteries? What about all of these dead batteries, what are we going to do with all of those? Your trading an existing "bad" for a new "bad"...

Article on EV batteries:
https://fee.org/articles/the-environmental-downside-of-electric-vehicles/

And another:
https://magazine.northeast.aaa.com/...ectric-car-batteries-bad-for-the-environment/

It's actually still "global warming", but they switched to "climate change" in an attempt to head off people who run outside when it snows heavily and yell "Where's the warming now?!." Few seem to understand climate is global, and weather is local. Global warming leads to greater instability in the weather patterns, much caused by increased evaporation and water vapor in the air. Sort of like why we are having 100-year floods on a yearly basis in many areas. So you'll still get crazy cold snaps and snow, despite it being warmer globally. But actually, I came to comment on the recycling point:

The articles you linked (and an article linked in one of THOSE articles) point out that only 4-5% of lithium batteries are recycled and most end up in a landfill, but that stat is from 2019, and electric cars are new enough that most of what they're talking about is lithium batteries in consumer goods (cell phones, mostly) and not car battery packs. That's already drastically changing, too. Lithium recycling is ramping up, and places are starting to pay for the material. This will only continue to increase.

A lot of these "peak battery" arguments come across like someone in the late 60's / early 70's claiming their 600-pound 335hp V8 was the pinnacle of engine design. Now we're seeing more horsepower than that out of 4-cylinders, and they get insanely better gas mileage.

 

[c-dubb]

Wait.

That sarcastic reply is the dick thing to say, but not the climate change denier bragging about committing crimes because he’s a snowflake triggered by just the thought of EVs?

The priorities on display here.

Priorities indeed. One a prank the other murder. So yeah yours was more dicky.

 

[OX1]

Therefore I think EVs will have some fundamental trade-offs for a while (range, charging speed, or reliability/lifespan if extremely fast charging is used).

How many tenders am I going to need for my limited use, ICE stuff (non vehicles). Large push type leaf blower, backpack leaf blower, tamper, weed wacker, back up generator (of some sort to replace 6500W and 3500W current gen's), bobcat, chains saws (two, one for wood, one for cutting near ground/rocks, etc.. that I don't care if it gets full of mud or wears out blade quick), lawn tractor, lawn tiller, pressure washer.

Some stuff like the HF tamper, gets used once every 5-8 years. Drain gas, and do NOTHING to it for that long. Will the battery pack that large that replaces a 6.5 HP gas engine, even last 8 years just sitting there? (even on a tender?). Can't imagine the battery pack I need to replace a 43 HP diesel (bobcat).

Some people might say "do you really need a bobcat"? Sure, in a town where you have to get a permit to cut down ANY tree. On 4.5 acres with probably 3.5 acre of it thick "forest, and virtually every tree has carpenter ants. On any given day, could be a full tree just falls over in my driveway (yes, it has happened 3 times already, not always a full tree). That and the cost of an electric bobast is 200 grand. https://www.enr.com/articles/53721-...ctric-compact-track-loader-sees-future-in-evs I picked up my 753 for $6800 (20 years ago and it is still worth that or more I bet), a little beat up with main arms welded up.

I tried recently to buy a HD pressure washer electric. It was going to be well over 3 grand to get the same power (pressure/volume) as the top line HF (4400 PSI/4.2 GPH) on sale ($999).

 

[Cetacean Sensation]

Priorities indeed. One a prank the other murder. So yeah yours was more dicky.

EV plugs have locks on them. So if someone is going around unplugging things, they’re breaking things. I don’t consider destruction of people’s property a prank. But I guess you do?

If they would rather die by licking power chords, then they had better do it. Decrease the surplus population.

 

[DryYourTears]

Priorities indeed. One a prank the other murder. So yeah yours was more dicky.

I get that it's just faux outrage, but it wouldn't be murder anyhow - it would either be suicide or "accidental death", even if someone told them to do it.

 

[sameoldeddie]

I really think we'll see a hybrid or EV in the current gen.

Had a random conversation with a Ford engineer and it seems really unlikely (his opinion, not mine) for two main reasons. The first is that Ford did their market research and concluded the demand was either for ICE or full electric but not sufficient for the hybrid, which I found surprising as that would’ve been my personal choice. The second is that the EV technology is prohibitive for the platform at this point without adding a LOT of size and weight, similar to the absolutely massive new Hummers (lol at the phrase ‘massive hummers’).

 

[Mario3241]

The near future is actually worse batteries, not better. Ford is already planning on changing the lower trim Mach-E and Lightning to LiFePO batteries which are lower performance than the current ones. (but cheaper)

LiFePo is fantastic for longevity, weight, maintenance and holding a charge longer. It’s just less energy dense so it needs to be physically larger for the same capacity. If you’re buying a power station today, make sure it’s LiFePo for long term capacity.

 

[Mario3241]

You are confusing reality with hope.

Let’s keep it simple.

Your ridiculous post has no bearing on anything. Even where the axiom, not law, was developed for it is no longer even the case. Eventually everything reaches its limit. Let’s look at compute abilities which is what the non-law was developed for. It is reaching its limit. Although not there yet we are close. It has to do with the size of the compute area. You can only go so small with the transistors and so far apart.

However, there is an actual viable next step. Quantum computing. It is already in use but has a very limited use set currently. But there is technology there with actual physics to support it.

Now let’s look at batteries. Current battery technology is about as far as it can go. There is no more head room for breakthroughs but there is for refinement. So you will see some improvement but nothing major. And this based on reality as well. To repeat myself but still keeping ourselves in reality… you can only push so many electrons through a substrate so fast so many times until it is completely destroyed. The faster you push them the faster it degrades. This is simple physics and... reality.

So taking that beyond basic understanding… you clearly see the limits and where it is being held back.

There has to be a new magic battery made that will allow for legit range and faster charging. That is impossible with the current type of batteries. It is not based on today’s technology but the way batteries work. Period. So there needs to be a new magic battery found. It’s simple and there are absolutely no legitimate contenders to do that. There have been dozens of new touted breakthrough batteries but none have gone anywhere. Some where simply snake oil, others were neat thought but once examined they have no viability.

It is not a knock on the technology but accepting it for what it is. Look at almost any pure electric car. It can out accelerate my gas powered V8 Mustang like I were going in reverse. But I can go on a road trip in it if I wanted and not have to plan a route with dozens of stops to charge it.

And no cares what silly insults you would call people. Stick to the topic at hand.

Solid State batteries are the next breakthrough that most manufacturers are chasing. It will be a total game changer if and when it happens.

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