Bronco October 2021 Sales & Production Numbers: 7,364 Sold / 7,668 Produced

[Bronco#2]

Wonder how many 21 orders didn’t get converted to 22 orders?

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[Razorbak86]

Ford's October Sales Show Momentum Despite Chip Shortage
Barrons.com - Al Root

Ford Motor's (F) October sales numbers showed improvement over the prior month. It's a sign Ford is managing its way through the global semiconductor shortage that is roiling production.

On Wednesday, Ford announced U.S. sales of 175,000 vehicles, up 11% from less than 157,000 vehicles in September. October sales were down 4% compared with a year ago, when Ford delivered about 183,000 vehicles. But that's also an improvement from September, when Ford sales dropped almost 18% compared with September 2020.

The news is helping Ford stock a little. Shares are up about 1% in early trading, at $18.19. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are down 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.

That gain adds to Ford's strong run. Shares are up more than 100% so far this year and more than 25% over the past month. Better than expected third quarter earnings and the restart of dividend payments are two reasons shares are up lately.

This year has been solid for Ford, coming out of the Covid-19 induced recession. The coming year looks solid as well, with gains in sales and earnings projected by the Street. Still, the lack of semiconductors has forced most auto makers to take unplanned downtime, stealing sales. What's more, most auto makers don't expect the situation to be fully resolved until the second half of 2022, at the earliest.

That leaves companies such as Ford the challenge of getting chips and making as many cars as they can. Ford seems to have done a good job of that in October.

Wall Street projects $1.81 in per-share earnings from about $138 billion in revenue in 2021. Wall Street sees $1.90 in per-share earnings from almost $160 billion in revenue in 2022.

Write to Al Root at [email protected]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-03-211109ET
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

 

[Herbie]

I bet it's even more. That's also where a lot of the lot Broncos are coming from. Probably surprising how many people probably forgot they even reserved, it was the hot thing to do at the time, then look a squirrel.

True, even if 10K walked away it doesn't mean their reservation / order walked away so it doesn't help raise all ships.

 

[mpeugeot]

Isn't this like double September? Nice

Still less than August.

Assume that Nov/Dec crank full speed for 6 weeks x 6 days x 800 units per day that is a maximum of 28,800 Broncos. That's not going to happen.

I am guessing that Nov/Dec will be somewhere between 1.5-2.0 x August production of ~8,000 vehicles. That's roughly 12,000-16,000 more Broncos this year for a total of 45,000 - 49,000 best case scenario.

All in all, this could have been much worse for Ford given all the missteps.

 

[Bronco4lyfe85]

7668 x 12 + 33207 = 125,043.

Yikes. It’s going to take them 3 years to make 217K Broncos.

 

[mpeugeot]

7668 x 12 + 33207 = 125,043.

Yikes. It’s going to take them 3 years to make 217K Broncos.

Yep, If you think about it, right now... you are only 3x more likely to see a Bronco as you are a Ferrari F-355.

 

[Bronco4lyfe85]

Yep, If you think about it, right now... you are only 3x more likely to see a Bronco as you are a Ferrari F-355.

You’re 3X more likely to see a good roof on a F-355 too.

 

[604Bronco]

Big?, fancy?— six letters, not Latin or foreign derived…..can you think of a simpler word that conveys the same meaning?

Go ahead, I’ll wait while you look up convey.

"Still around" would have dumbed it down to my level.

Isn't a convey one of the options for delivery of our Bronco's, outside of rail? (kidding - I'm not that stupid lol).

 

[TK-421]

I’m only here for vocabulary lessons!

This has everything you need to know right here.

 

[Sherminiator]

7668 x 12 + 33207 = 125,043.

Yikes. It’s going to take them 3 years to make 217K Broncos.

Total produced each month should still ramp up. I was looking at Ranger production in 2019-2020 and they hit 10-12K produced a few months.

Outside of supply chain issues, there should be no reason why they can't build 250K plus units between the Ranger and Bronco at MAP.

I'll venture to guess that most 21MY reservation holders should have their Broncos by the end of Summer 2022, in the worst case.

 

[skhubbard93]

"October new vehicle orders hit 77,000."

-- or --

How to fool Wall Street in 5 words or fewer (and a number).

Step 1: Ford tells all unscheduled orders that they need to re-order starting in mid-October.
Step 2: Ford tells all orders awaiting rescheduling that MY22 build scheduling will begin soon thereafter, and only buildable (non-99) orders will be scheduled.
Step 3: Outstanding reservation-holders scamper to dealers to re-order their Broncos as MY22s as soon as possible after the system opens in October.
Step 4: Ford includes these re-orders as new vehicle orders in October.

Am I wrong? Possibly. Ford might not count such re-orders in its totals. But then again, it might... especially if those were pending MY22s to begin with due to lack of MY21 features.

 

[Bronco23]

Just like dealer allocations it’s hidden. The number dropped from 80% retail orders to 60% retail orders. Maybe it was name match that I saw. For MY21 dealers needed 80% of reservations to match the reservationists name without getting penalized. Now it’s 60%. Here’s your link

https://fordauthority.com/2021/09/2...tch-policy-created-to-curb-reservation-abuse/

That article states for the '21 Model year 60%, there is no reference to a percentage or change for '22.

 

[dbeyers]

Sales of the all-new Bronco continue to grow as inventory flows. In-transit inventory of Bronco is up 11.7 percent over September, with Bronco sales for the month totaling 7,364 SUVs – up 117 percent at retail relative to September.

Bronco October 2021 Sales & Production Highlights

• Bronco Sales (October): 7,364 vehicles. Sales (YTD): 17,568 vehicles.
• Bronco Production (October): 7,668 vehicles. Production (YTD): 33,207 vehicles.

Overall October 2021 Sales Highlights

• New products, strong inventory make Ford America’s top-selling automaker for second straight month.
• Ford brand SUVs post best October results in 21 years.
• F-Series expands lead.
• October new vehicle orders hit 77,000.
• Lincoln brand SUV sales continue to climb.
• October new vehicle orders hit 77,000.
• October 2021 total US Sales: 175,918 vehicles.
• 32% of retail sales in October came from a previously placed new vehicle order.
• In a few weeks, Ford begins production of its all new E-Transit.
• All electric F-150 Lightning has now accumulated over 160,000 reservations.
• For F-Series, strong SUV sales driven by Bronco, Bronco Sport, Mustang Mach-E, and first full month of Maverick sales fueled October performance.
• Overall sales were down 4.0% (YoY from October 2020).
• Retail sales were down 3.8% (YoY from October 2020).

October 2021 Sales Summary

October 2021 Sales

October 2021 Inventory

October 2021 Production

I've been tracking these numbers over time:

I constructed this to get an approximation of the number of ponies on Dirt Mountain and to track production, sales and inventory.

Some points:

* Gross stocks (vehicles on dealer lots?) have risen from 0 in June to 6,200 in October.

* From June through August, production was much higher than sales and you can see that Dirt Mtn grew quickly (note I have deducted inventory from production to get to Dirt Mtn).

* Dirt Mtn has been dropping at a healthy rate beginning in August.

* Beginning in September, Sales and Production have been about the same every month.

* If we assume a run-rate of about 8,000 per month for the remainder of the 2021 model year, MY21 production will be about 48,500.

* If we assume the same 8,000 per month for MY22, MY22 production will be about 96,000.

* If 120,000 of the MY21 reservations were converted to orders (ignoring people dropping off and code 99's) and given 32,000 produced to date (ignoring that some of these are post-March 19 orders) and given 6,200 in dealer stocks, there are about 85,000 MY21 reservations to build. In a perfect world at 8,000 a month, it will take 11 months to clear these.

* Hopefully the monthly build rate grows.

 

[Bronco4lyfe85]

Total produced each month should still ramp up. I was looking at Ranger production in 2019-2020 and they hit 10-12K produced a few months.

Outside of supply chain issues, there should be no reason why they can't build 250K plus units between the Ranger and Bronco at MAP.

I'll venture to guess that most 21MY reservation holders should have their Broncos by the end of Summer 2022, in the worst case.

I don’t believe that for a second. The commodity constraints and allocations aren’t doing anyone with an early 2021 order any favors. I’ve seen people with day, week and month old orders here getting vins bypassing a hundred thousand people. It’s like the hunger games anymore.

 

[mmorgan]

I was thinking the same thing-

Sadly I believe, just reading different feeds, that a lot of new orders are showing up, especially soft tops, from big allotment dealers that make the "120,000 reservations" number unless.
Ford continues to ignore early reservation holders in favor of new, identical builds from big dealers. The reason we see all these claims of build dates for recent orders. Choice of dealer means everything.

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