Estimated Build Date Graph

[ssolypop]

So made a few graphs to illustrate when you MIGHT expect YOUR bronco to be built based on when you ordered.
using numbers from how many reservations were made and assuming 70% order rate. Comparing that to production numbers which (fingers crossed) have been hovering around 10k units per month for the last 3 months.

so baring any further delays heres what i got .

first orders by day of reservation (first 30 days)

so as you can see the VAST majority of reservations were the first 24hrs after it went live. So if you reserved yours in that first day. Your in that group. Then a steady decline from there.
Total orders is (roughly) 140,000 units. Cant find any GOOD data on it. But roughly 70k of those were reserved in the first 24 hours or half the total.

now production numbers. (Will be updated Monthly)

View attachment 254973
so based on this data. If you reserved yours within the first 24 hours and HAVENT gotten yours yet, baring any more hiccups, you SHOULD get it by April? Maybe later. Again guestimations. Then if you reserved it in the first week, you should see it by July. Then within the first 30 days you should see it by September. Then if you have an order AT ALL (including if you made it today) you should see it by the end of the year. (By which point there SHOULD be about 175,000 built)

i know thats a LONG time meaning some people will be waiting 24+ months from the time of reservation to delivery. But thats what happens when you have the hottest vehicle in 30 years mixed with a global supply chain issue.
Broncos are built AS CLOSE TO reservation order as possible, but theres 2 major factors

1 dealer allocation - Some dealers get their broncos faster than others.
So if you know your order is at a larger dealer move your timeline up, smaller move back.

2 part supply issue - some items are taking longer to fill, Towing packages, hard tops, manual trans, 2.7L, 2 door, and higher trims requiring more chips etc.

this is just for a rough time line of how long your vehicle MAY take.

Great work! Looks on point given that you cant factor in every single variable. I think it will hold true for the majority 51% or greater of the reservations. I'm closer to that late summer early fall '22 timeframe so my strat is to be on the hunt for a used or a skipped model. Thanks for doing the math!

Sponsored

 

[JaxGtc]

The way to look at this is….it’s a Hardtop vs Soft Top. Production.
Now that the hard tops are being built at 5 to 6 thousand per month (ball park estimated) out of the 10 to 12 thousand produced per month…that would create a best case scenario of another roughly 50% hard top and 50% soft top production.

Of those originally ordered, If I had to guess would say a large majority were hard top (80-90%)

What Ford really needs to do is reduce the Soft top ratio to something that reflects the original reservation/order percentage….
That is the only way we will be able to predict when anyone will get their Bronco.

Perhaps the 2nd Webasto plant coming on line will solve the MIC throughput issues once and for all.

 

[Easy-v]

And those numbers dont include abandoned reservations, cancelled reservations etc....call me an optimist - I would shave 10%-15% off those estimates -

- Look at the sales vs production numbers - ~10% of new broncos remain unsold - chip holds and DM may account for some of that - but if the bar for a reservation/order is so low - there is bound to be a high rate of abandoned orders and reservations (and ADM walk aways)

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

I totally get where you're coming from. Great to see the macro view. It's so easy to get wrapped around the axle with the minutia... and fail to see the big picture and trends.

Anyone expecting these charts to tell them what week or month their Bronco will be built on is looking for too much. But it's great for seeing when the odds start turning in your favor.

It would be interesting to see an aggregate of who's left 'in the queue'. (i.e., a by-month estimate of: Total reservations/converted orders - Total production to date + new orders that month - monthly production). Requires some guesswork in new orders... but at least that will show a downward trend as production continuously whittles down the waiting list. If you use a conservative monthly production level, it will even out the highs and lows caused by unforeseeable constraints.

Great work. Well done.

Unfortunately 1 theres no breakdown of what’s currently reserved trims options etc
2 current reservations numbers and when they were made.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

And those numbers dont include abandoned reservations, cancelled reservations etc....call me an optimist - I would shave 10%-15% off those estimates -

- Look at the sales vs production numbers - ~10% of new broncos remain unsold - chip holds and DM may account for some of that - but if the bar for a reservation/order is so low - there is bound to be a high rate of abandoned orders and reservations (and ADM walk aways)

Absolutely. But i left myself about 10% error. ~180k total bronco built by years end. Current orders is about 140k so include walk ins and dealer inventory thats about 180k.

 

[Incommunicado]

Assumes all orders will be fulfilled in the year. No.
Does not account for those jumping ahead of reservation holders, consuming production.
Applaud the effort but not enough data to be useful. Those with reservations at select dealerships are not going to see their orders this year. They will sit in a long line and allocations will not be enough.
Those with reservations and no vin need to place identical orders elsewhere.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

As far as dealer allocations go.
There are 3,000+ dealers in the usa.
theres about 150,000 bronco orders.
so 50 orders per on average.

again the issue is tho. If an average dealer has over 50 orders those people

Assumes all orders will be fulfilled in the year. No.
Does not account for those jumping ahead of reservation holders, consuming production.
Applaud the effort but not enough data to be useful. Those with reservations at select dealerships are not going to see their orders this year. They will sit in a long line and allocations will not be enough.
Those with reservations and no vin need to place identical orders elsewhere.

absolutely. If i ordered day 1 and still dont have a bronco yet.I would definitely be placing orders elsewhere.

and the shitty thing is dealers arnt gonna give you a real answer in terms of what their allocation is

 

[22OBX]

I think some try to send signals without saying what there allocation may be. I have heard the term “pacing” our orders, “balancing” our orders. Anything along those lines I think is a sign they are running sales = yearly allocation projections. Even if there was not one bronco produced that wasn’t a reservation, we knew from the get go with production starting in June 21, that the MY21 would be a 6 month model year and there would be at least half the 120,000 converted reservations that would be a MY22 model year. Ford having to recalculate allocations threw many into a tight spot and longer wait because some dealers now has more orders than allocation. This means some reservation holders could be looking at MY23 unless they change their build, are able to move their order to another dealer, or just cancel and reorder from a dealer that will shoot straight with them on allocation. I think many are hesitant to share allocation because as we have seen Ford can change allocation, usually due to dmv state allocation laws where other dealers may cry fouls if their allocation isn’t fair or if the allocation is adversely affecting their dealer performance.

 

[DEC]

Please tell me when my 2 door BD 2.3 February 21 reservation and order at a top 100 dealer will show up.
Just curious.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

I think some try to send signals without saying what there allocation may be. I have heard the term “pacing” our orders, “balancing” our orders. Anything along those lines I think is a sign they are running sales = yearly allocation projections. Even if there was not one bronco produced that wasn’t a reservation, we knew from the get go with production starting in June 21, that the MY21 would be a 6 month model year and there would be at least half the 120,000 converted reservations that would be a MY22 model year. Ford having to recalculate allocations threw many into a tight spot and longer wait because some dealers now has more orders than allocation. This means some reservation holders could be looking at MY23 unless they change their build, are able to move their order to another dealer, or just cancel and reorder from a dealer that will shoot straight with them on allocation. I think many are hesitant to share allocation because as we have seen Ford can change allocation, usually due to dmv state allocation laws where other dealers may cry fouls if their allocation isn’t fair or if the allocation is adversely affecting their dealer performance.

I think before too long ford is going to have to do something. Especially if its BEFORE May and most dealers are out of allocations and they still have 50,000+ orders.

they arnt gonna loose out on 50,000 orders.

again this all shows that dealers just need to go F OFF!

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

Please tell me when my 2 door BD 2.3 February 21 reservation and order at a top 100 dealer will show up.
Just curious.

The issue with allocation is,
Sure they could be a top 100 dealer but say they are getting 100 broncos.
they could have 200 orders mean while jo smo down the road that is a bottom 2000 dealer is only getting 10 but only has 5 orders.

its tough on the customer all to make dealers happy.

 

[jeffersonvandyke]

area 51, outer banks, big motor, loaded- ordered on 7/7/2021 production date 3/28/2022. Any idea based on this how long from the date of production it will arrive at the dealer?

 

[Wildtrak Guy]

I have a build date the week of 02/21/22 on a Wildtrak I reserved 07/20/20. The email also gave me my VIN. Anyone know what the average time frame of build date to dealership is???

 

[22OBX]

I think before too long ford is going to have to do something. Especially if its BEFORE May and most dealers are out of allocations and they still have 50,000+ orders.

they arnt gonna loose out on 50,000 orders.

again this all shows that dealers just need to go F OFF!

They need to work to move orders to other dealers that have allocation but I am sure dealers don’t want to lose the sale. Most likely this is part of the trouble people have had trying to move orders because the order is with the dealer you selected and they most likely do not want to release the order. The allocation for the year should equal what they can produce for the year. It’s all about the dealership being upfront and letting you know yes or no with some degree of confidence they can deliver. Obviously some dealerships have allocation otherwise new orders would not be able to get built or scheduled. Also that is how dealer stock orders are being filled. They either have no buildable customer orders or just have more allocation than orders so there stock orders go through.

 

[22OBX]

I have a build date the week of 02/21/22 on a Wildtrak I reserved 07/20/20. The email also gave me my VIN. Anyone know what the average time frame of build date to dealership is???

I would say 3 to 4 weeks after it’s built and shows shipped

Sponsored