Great work! Looks on point given that you cant factor in every single variable. I think it will hold true for the majority 51% or greater of the reservations. I'm closer to that late summer early fall '22 timeframe so my strat is to be on the hunt for a used or a skipped model. Thanks for doing the math!So made a few graphs to illustrate when you MIGHT expect YOUR bronco to be built based on when you ordered.
using numbers from how many reservations were made and assuming 70% order rate. Comparing that to production numbers which (fingers crossed) have been hovering around 10k units per month for the last 3 months.
so baring any further delays heres what i got .
first orders by day of reservation (first 30 days)
so as you can see the VAST majority of reservations were the first 24hrs after it went live. So if you reserved yours in that first day. Your in that group. Then a steady decline from there.
Total orders is (roughly) 140,000 units. Cant find any GOOD data on it. But roughly 70k of those were reserved in the first 24 hours or half the total.
now production numbers. (Will be updated Monthly)
View attachment 254973
so based on this data. If you reserved yours within the first 24 hours and HAVENT gotten yours yet, baring any more hiccups, you SHOULD get it by April? Maybe later. Again guestimations. Then if you reserved it in the first week, you should see it by July. Then within the first 30 days you should see it by September. Then if you have an order AT ALL (including if you made it today) you should see it by the end of the year. (By which point there SHOULD be about 175,000 built)
i know thats a LONG time meaning some people will be waiting 24+ months from the time of reservation to delivery. But thats what happens when you have the hottest vehicle in 30 years mixed with a global supply chain issue.
Broncos are built AS CLOSE TO reservation order as possible, but theres 2 major factors
1 dealer allocation - Some dealers get their broncos faster than others.
So if you know your order is at a larger dealer move your timeline up, smaller move back.
2 part supply issue - some items are taking longer to fill, Towing packages, hard tops, manual trans, 2.7L, 2 door, and higher trims requiring more chips etc.
this is just for a rough time line of how long your vehicle MAY take.
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