Estimated Build Date Graph

[Squatch]

I bet I could walk in today and order one and get it by September.

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[vzqhsg]

This is interesting and you did a good job....BUT....WHO CARES!!! You get it when you get it!! Go play with your kids or take your wife or others to dinner and enjoy your time with them. That matters!!

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

This is interesting and you did a good job....BUT....WHO CARES!!! You get it when you get it!! Go play with your kids or take you wife or others to dinner and enjoy your time with them. That matters!!

i know. But ive learned after being on here for 4 years that the more information people have the less angry they are….
We dont want flying chairs lol

 

[Kbobs21]

So made a few graphs to illustrate when you MIGHT expect YOUR bronco to be built based on when you ordered.
using numbers from how many reservations were made and assuming 70% order rate. Comparing that to production numbers which (fingers crossed) have been hovering around 10k units per month for the last 3 months.

so baring any further delays heres what i got .

first orders by day of reservation (first 30 days)

so as you can see the VAST majority of reservations were the first 24hrs after it went live. So if you reserved yours in that first day. Your in that group. Then a steady decline from there.
Total orders is (roughly) 140,000 units. Cant find any GOOD data on it. But roughly 70k of those were reserved in the first 24 hours or half the total.

now production numbers. (Will be updated Monthly)

View attachment 254973
so based on this data. If you reserved yours within the first 24 hours and HAVENT gotten yours yet, baring any more hiccups, you SHOULD get it by April? Maybe later. Again guestimations. Then if you reserved it in the first week, you should see it by July. Then within the first 30 days you should see it by September. Then if you have an order AT ALL (including if you made it today) you should see it by the end of the year. (By which point there SHOULD be about 175,000 built)

i know thats a LONG time meaning some people will be waiting 24+ months from the time of reservation to delivery. But thats what happens when you have the hottest vehicle in 30 years mixed with a global supply chain issue.
Broncos are built AS CLOSE TO reservation order as possible, but theres 2 major factors

1 dealer allocation - Some dealers get their broncos faster than others.
So if you know your order is at a larger dealer move your timeline up, smaller move back.

2 part supply issue - some items are taking longer to fill, Towing packages, hard tops, manual trans, 2.7L, 2 door, and higher trims requiring more chips etc.

this is just for a rough time line of how long your vehicle MAY take.
[/QUOT
As a Data Guy, I really appreciate your thorough analysis and data visualization.. kudos

 

[vzqhsg]

i know. But ive learned after being on here for 4 years that the more information people have the less angry they are….
We dont want flying chairs lol

We will leave the flying to the pigs...and don't forget the lip stick!!

 

[Squatch]

This is interesting and you did a good job....BUT....WHO CARES!!! You get it when you get it!! Go play with your kids or take you wife or others to dinner and enjoy your time with them. That matters!!

 

[Will2497]

 

[JaxGtc]

Fun chart. Meaningless, unfortunately, to those of us at dealers with high-reservations-low-allocations.

I reserved July 23, 2020. I think my honest most likely timeframe for actually getting built is probably going be some time around July 2023, which would be oddly fitting.

Not a flame in any way, but I am just curious why you don't just change dealers. If I'm in a long line at the store and there is a shorter one, I just move. I get the difference in price is a big deal for some folks, but it has me scratching my head for most.

 

[Lake Tahoe Traveler]

The way to look at this is….it’s a Hardtop vs Soft Top. Production.

Without question, Ford has been building a huge abundance of Soft top units to keep their production line at capacity.

Their reservation/order production is an artificial number because it does not reflect the reservation/order ratio of actual orders.

Now that the hard tops are currently being built at 5 to 6 thousand per month (ball park estimated) out of the 10 to 12 thousand produced per month…this scenario of is roughly 50% hard top and 50% soft top production.

This 50/50 ratio is still way out of whack with actual reservation /converted orders .

Of those originally ordered, If I had to guess would say a large majority were hard top (80-90%)

What Ford really needs to do is reduce the Soft top production to something that reflects the original ratio of reservation/orders.

That is the only way we will be able to predict when anyone who reserved will get their Bronco.

 

[66GT]

As stated at the bottom now. (Edited)
Broncos are built AS CLOSE TO reservation order as possible, but theres 2 major factors

1 dealer allocation - Some dealers get their broncos faster than others.
So if you know your order is at a larger dealer move your timeline up, smaller move back.

2 part supply issue - some items are taking longer to fill, Towing packages, hard tops, manual trans, 2.7L, 2 door, and higher trims requiring more chips etc.

I totally get where you're coming from. Great to see the macro view. It's so easy to get wrapped around the axle with the minutia... and fail to see the big picture and trends.

Anyone expecting these charts to tell them what week or month their Bronco will be built on is looking for too much. But it's great for seeing when the odds start turning in your favor.

It would be interesting to see an aggregate of who's left 'in the queue'. (i.e., a by-month estimate of: Total reservations/converted orders - Total production to date + new orders that month - monthly production). Requires some guesswork in new orders... but at least that will show a downward trend as production continuously whittles down the waiting list. If you use a conservative monthly production level, it will even out the highs and lows caused by unforeseeable constraints.

Great work. Well done.

 

[66GT]

This may help graphically...tell me if I am using your numbers correctly?

 

[rmanecke]

Thanks for doing this, I was not aware about the volume of orders versus the date... really enlightening!

 

[Ramble_Offroad]

Dealer allocation shenanigans essentially make any rational extrapolation like this completely void.

 

[1970AMCAMX]

Nice work, but still doesn't explain why folks are walking in to dealers without reservations and getting build dates in a couple of months. Even for Base 2dr. like I ordered.

These charts don't take into account the walk-ins without reservations which is going to have a significant impact. If a large dealer with a large allocation has few or no reservations those stock units are going to be built right alongside those that were reserved.

In the end I would not doubt that 50 percent of the Bronco's built this year will go to dealer stock and orders instead of reserved Bronco's

 

[jddunfee]

Reservation holders are the more loyal people that will wait it out. Ford knows this. So, take a walk in person and they want to order one. If the dealer says you will get it next year, that person most likely walks away and no sale. Ford knows this. So, make your reservation holders wait in line ( loyal people) behind the walk ins (non loyal people) to generate more sales. And if you're concerned about allocations, don't worry about that. The dealer can get past that with so many schemes and hey, they can push the reservation holders off longer if that's what it takes.
IT'S ALL ABOUT THE ALL MIGHTY DOLLAR FOLKS. NOT CUSTOMER SATISFACTION.

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