Final Conversion Rate?

[MorgansRun]

So let me get this straight....

190 thousand reservations was the Ford number that we heard from Estaban (on his Q & A video). Correct me if I'm wrong.

Also,
It was reflected that after the 9/18/20 reservations they would be moved to MY22 (after Dec. 31, 2021).

Also,
We know that the Michigan plant can build conservatively 600 Bronco's per day, therefore, (with a 5 day work week ), we get can count on approximately 12,000 Bronco's conservately built per month. (This even includes the 2-3 thousand manikins built prior to June 1).

If you go by the June 1st, 2021 through Dec. 31 ,2021, dates (for model year 2021 builds) , we arrive at approximately 84,000 Bronco's built for the year.

So is we go by the current estimation of 66% converted orders.....66% of 190000 = 125,400 converted orders.

Therefore: 84000 broncos built for this year (June 1 - Dec.31) and 41,400 Broncos for model year 2022 (Jan 1 - March 15th) = 125,400 converted orders built.

From what I'm gathering, everything looks like it will be more or less ON SCHEDULE and meet the expectations of what we have been told (given the timetables).

I know it is a hard pill to swallow, but I'm going to bide my time and be happy when I finally get my new Badlands when ever it shows up!!!!!

Congrats Ford for converting 66% of your reservations to orders!!!!!

Now do the math on who gets what when.

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[Virtual-Chris]

So let me get this straight....

190 thousand reservations was the Ford number that we heard from Estaban (on his Q & A video). Correct me if I'm wrong.

Also,
It was reflected that after the 9/18/20 reservations they would be moved to MY22 (after Dec. 31, 2021).

Also,
We know that the Michigan plant can build conservatively 600 Bronco's per day, therefore, (with a 5 day work week ), we get can count on approximately 12,000 Bronco's conservately built per month. (This even includes the 2-3 thousand manikins built prior to June 1).

If you go by the June 1st, 2021 through Dec. 31 ,2021, dates (for model year 2021 builds) , we arrive at approximately 84,000 Bronco's built for the year.

So is we go by the current estimation of 66% converted orders.....66% of 190000 = 125,400 converted orders.

Therefore: 84000 broncos built for this year (June 1 - Dec.31) and 41,400 Broncos for model year 2022 (Jan 1 - March 15th) = 125,400 converted orders built.

From what I'm gathering, everything looks like it will be more or less ON SCHEDULE and meet the expectations of what we have been told (given the timetables).

Great run-down on the math.

66% conversion on orders seems high to me... so that's probably an extreme value for that particular variable.

What will be interesting is that there are new people ordering Broncos every week, adding onto the queue... so how long will it take before you can order a bronco and get it into production right away? A couple of years?

And there's also likely to be some percentage of people that back-out between now and delivery. Some might move forward in the queue. I expect some dealers to end up with pre-ordered Bronco's on the lot for sale if someone bails after a VIN is assigned. Lots of moving parts to this puzzle.

 

[TennesseeBronco]

My dealer had 104 reservations, 40 initial allocations, 48 converted to orders.

 

[jonwithanelcamino]

My guess is 110-120k ordered nationwide.

We playing closest to the pin?

Ill guess 105k

 

[Boxer4]

So 46% real orders and 20%, have we got a deal for you.

At least 80% of any conversion rate should be real orders and a max of 20 % dealer harvested for "stock" conversions.

So nationally @ 66% :
Real - 52.8% Conversion rate ( 66% x .80 )
"Stock"- 13.2% Harvested rate ( 66% x .20 )

 

[Boxer4]

So let me get this straight....

190 thousand reservations was the Ford number that we heard from Estaban (on his Q & A video). Correct me if I'm wrong.

Also,
It was reflected that after 9/18/20 reservation date, future reservations would be moved to MY22 (after Dec. 31, 2021).

Also,
We know that the Michigan plant can build conservatively 600 Bronco's per day, therefore, (with a 5 day work week ), we get can count on approximately 12,000 Bronco's conservatively built per month. (This even includes the 2-3 thousand manikins built prior to June 1).

If you go by the June 1st, 2021 through Dec. 31 ,2021, dates (for model year 2021 builds) , we arrive at approximately 84,000 Bronco's built for the year.

So if we go by the current estimation of 66% converted orders.....66% of 190,000 = 125,400 converted orders.

Therefore: 84,000 broncos built for this year (June 1 - Dec.31) and 41,400 Broncos for model year 2022 (Jan 1 - March 15th) = 125,400 converted orders built.

From what I'm gathering, everything looks like it will be more or less ON SCHEDULE and meet the expectations of what we have been told (given the delayed timetables).

I know it is a hard pill to swallow, but I'm going to bide my time and be happy when I finally get my new Badlands (when ever it shows up)!!!!!

Congrats Ford for converting 66% of your reservations to orders!!!!!

Correct on the 190k- Need to consider MY22 December shutdown

 

[mrjerry469]

Ford won't be releasing that info until closer to when their Q1 results are released. The numbers floating around were a dealer's estimate. Take that for what it's worth.

And like most statistics, there will be modifiers and adjustments to Ford's final number to make it appear as best as possible.

Statistics lie and liar's use statistics

 

[Razorbak86]

So let me get this straight....

190 thousand reservations was the Ford number that we heard from Estaban (on his Q & A video). Correct me if I'm wrong.

Correct on the 190k

190,000 was correct at that time, but the executive team provided an update on the 4Q earnings call.

I would guess 198,000 as of 2/4/21.

 

[Razorback]

My dealer with the buyers group had 400 reservations and around 335 convert. Initial allocation was around 115 allocation. Will be interesting to see how the actual implementation of the formula works out.

 

[Used2jeep]

Comment on sports radio the other day, Felger & Mazz for you locals.
Rough paraphrase but the point is very accurate:
"People don't like sports anymore. The game isn't important. What is important is the field goal percentage, the time on ice, the +/-, WAR and all of these other facocta numbers, the salary cap. It's like you people just want the box scores to happen so that you can play with your spreadsheets!"

 

[Bronc-O]

If Ford got 110-120k that is fantastic good for them. I was a solid 30-35% person so will gladly admit I was wrong 50%+ is outstanding.

I think there will be a big change when projected build dates are announced. I'm sure there are a lot that expect a couple of months after job #1. When they find out it will really be 8 months to a year, the bottom will fall out. I'm only willing to hold out for about 6 months and I'm sure I'm not the only one that will only wait so long.

 

[bstoked]

Where did the 9/18 date come from? Ford?

My dealer had over 400 reservations. 263 converted and they think 121 of those will be 2021 delivery.

 

[XCR440]

Where did the 9/18 date come from? Ford?

My dealer had over 400 reservations. 263 converted and they think 121 of those will be 2021 delivery.

Ford announced they will use the 9/18 and earlier reservations for allocations, so the estimate was based on these. Now they'll recalculate based on actual converted orders to make the actual dealer allocation. So if national rate is 66% (I don't know, just for example), and your dealer only converted 50% (of 9/18 and earlier reservations), they will likely loose allocations from the estimate. If they converted 90% they should gain allocations from the estimate. This is where the conversion rate is important.

Also the conversion rates we've been talking about are for all reservations, but only the 9/18 and earlier ones count for allocation, so we don't know where we're at. My guess is that it was higher than the total, I did think much higher, but the surge in the last week was a lot of later reservations that would be 2022 orders anyway, zone reps were pushing us to convert those, so maybe not a great deal higher.

Also I do think some dealers were only converting the orders they had allocation for based on the estimate, not understanding that they'd loose their allocations by not converting ones that weren't in the allocation estimate, I'm assuming these dealers scrambling to get conversions was another part of the big surge at the end.

 

[Gamecock]

Where did the 9/18 date come from? Ford?

My dealer had over 400 reservations. 263 converted and they think 121 of those will be 2021 delivery.

Reservations before that date that are converted to orders count in the dealer allocation formula for MY21. Ford never intended nor did they say the date had any other impact, but some people read it as a MY21 cutoff date. It was never that. Meaningless except in regards to the formula.

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