66.75% final order conversion rate for 2021 Bronco

[Fly by Nite]

Sorry if this has been answered, but I have scoured through the threads and can't figure this out. What exactly does the dealer's allocation mean? Is that the number of Broncos a given dealer will receive this year or something else? I am number 23 of 36 at my dealer and an 8/14 reservation. I expect that my relatively late reservation means I'll be waiting a while, but then being within my dealer's initial allocation must mean something, right?

Some rough numbers: There are about 180k reservations before 9/18, and Ford obviously can't build all of them in 2021. Maybe they can build 60k, so roughly a third of orders could potentially be filled in 2021.

Ford made an early estimate of how many orders each dealer would receive.... that's where your dealer got his allocation estimate of 36 units. Average allocation was about 30% of their pre 9/18 reservations.

The final allocation will be based on a formula:
- 50% of the formula depends on the # of reservations (made before 9/18) that were converted to customer orders by 3/19.
- 25% of the formula depends on the dealers ranking or # of annual sales.
- 25% of the formula depends on the # of competitive vehicles in the area, Jeeps are a prime example.

In your dealers' case, the most important factor in keeping his original allocation #'s, is that his # of orders is close to or exceeds the # of pre 9/18 reservations he had when the estimate was made.
If his allocation estimate was 36, he had about 109 pre 9/18 reservations (roughly 30%).
If he converted 109 reservations to orders, he should still get at least 36 allocated.
But if he only converted half of those reservations, his allocation would be less.
Ford was expecting about a 70% conversion rate. Initial allocation may have been based on that and not 100% conversion..... so maybe your dealer only needed to convert 76 reservations (70%) and not the full 109 (100%).
There's a lot we don't know about the specifics of the allocation formula. The above is meant as a general idea of how it works.

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[Zac]

Some rough numbers: There are about 180k reservations before 9/18, and Ford obviously can't build all of them in 2021. Maybe they can build 60k, so roughly a third of orders could potentially be filled in 2021.

Ford made an early estimate of how many orders each dealer would receive.... that's where your dealer got his allocation estimate of 36 units. Average allocation was about 30% of their pre 9/18 reservations.

The final allocation will be based on a formula:
- 50% of the formula depends on the # of reservations (made before 9/18) that were converted to customer orders by 3/19.
- 25% of the formula depends on the dealers ranking or # of annual sales.
- 25% of the formula depends on the # of competitive vehicles in the area, Jeeps are a prime example.

In your dealers' case, the most important factor in keeping his original allocation #'s, is that his # of orders is close to or exceeds the # of pre 9/18 reservations he had when the estimate was made.
If his allocation estimate was 36, he had about 109 pre 9/18 reservations (roughly 30%).
If he converted 109 reservations to orders, he should still get at least 36 allocated.
But if he only converted half of those reservations, his allocation would be less.
Ford was expecting about a 70% conversion rate. Initial allocation may have been based on that and not 100% conversion..... so maybe your dealer only needed to convert 76 reservations (70%) and not the full 109 (100%).
There's a lot we don't know about the specifics of the allocation formula. The above is meant as a general idea of how it works.

Thank you, that is super helpful! Whatever the final allocation number ends up being though, is that the number of MY21 the dealer will actually end up getting? Or is it possible that my order might get bumped to MY22 even if I end up being within their final allocation?

 

[timhood]

I think people are extrapolating that from the Ford communique to the dealership about which items are constrained and which are free to build. For whatever reason, Ford specifically chose to add Big Bend to the free and clear list.

Ah ha. So people think that because Big Bend is listed that Ford is somehow planning on making more of them, rather than Big Bend is either a less-popular trim choice and/or least likely to contain any of the constrained items.

That would be the same faulty assumption as if we assumed that the only constrained configuration is a 2-door Wildtrack with Lux and leather (and the default Sasquatch and hart top). After all, the statement above says "ordering the options below", not "ordering any of the options below". So clearly, it means all, right?

 

[Raptor911]

If your dealer has 100 reservations and was allocated 35 for 2021 then the 1st 35 reservation holders are eligible for 2021 Broncos (assuming they are not ordering Manual with SAS which could be delayed). Any of those 35 reservations may opt to wait for a 2022 model.

I hope that answers your question.

Thank you, that is super helpful! Whatever the final allocation number ends up being though, is that the number of MY21 the dealer will actually end up getting? Or is it possible that my order might get bumped to MY22 even if I end up being within their final allocation?

 

[abe]

Thank you, that is super helpful! Whatever the final allocation number ends up being though, is that the number of MY21 the dealer will actually end up getting? Or is it possible that my order might get bumped to MY22 even if I end up being within their final allocation?

Whatever that final # is will be the # your dealer gets for 21

 

[timhood]

Thank you, that is super helpful! Whatever the final allocation number ends up being though, is that the number of MY21 the dealer will actually end up getting? Or is it possible that my order might get bumped to MY22 even if I end up being within their final allocation?

The closer someone is to the bottom of the allocation list, the more likely the order could get bumped to '22. The main reason would be if your order has one of the constrained items.

Think of it this way: Let's say your order includes Constrained Item X and Ford can produce 10,000 units of Constrained Item X for '21. You have a very early reservation timestamp and therefore also are high on your dealer's list. You are likely to receive on of those 10,000. But, the further down the list you are, the more likely that those 10,000 units are used up on people who reserved before you. Because of different supply and demand levels, there's no way for us to know exactly, but Constrained Item X could be used up by people who reserved in the first day while Constrained Item Y might not get used up nearly as quickly.

If you have no constrained items in your build, I would think you would be extremely likely to get a '21 if you are still at #23 of #36 after final allocation is done. Keep in mind that your position can change and your dealer's total allocation can change. Unless your dealer had people switch reservations from another dealer to him, your position should not go any lower and will probably go higher. But your dealer's allocation could go lower or higher. You could end up being #23 of #23, #16 of #44, or whatever. You'll have a much better understanding when your dealer can give you your new position in line and the final allocation number he is supposed to get. People are guessing that could happen within a week, but nobody yet knows for sure.

 

[HBTFD]

Some wrangler data for the allocation formula -

https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2021/03/jeep-owner-demographics/

 

[Fly by Nite]

^^^^ What Tim said.
You are in line for a 2021 but if Ford doesn't have all the parts for your build, it may not be built until 2022 as a MY22 model.

Many of us are hoping Ford:
- can build more Broncos than they originally estimated, or
- Less reservation holders (pre 9/18) converted into orders.
Either case would move us higher up (earlier) in the wait line.

Thank you, that is super helpful! Whatever the final allocation number ends up being though, is that the number of MY21 the dealer will actually end up getting? Or is it possible that my order might get bumped to MY22 even if I end up being within their final allocation?

 

[Fly by Nite]

Some wrangler data for the allocation formula -

https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2021/03/jeep-owner-demographics/

A surprise from that article:

Thanks for the link!
I'm thrilled to see my state (Pa) so high up on the list. Means my dealer will get higher allocation than average.

One of the intents of the Ford allocation formula is to get these early Broncos into areas where there are a lot of Jeeps. .... More potential Bronco buyers (or Jeep transferees) will see them, and should result in higher future Bronco sales.

 

[timhood]

Some wrangler data for the allocation formula -

https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2021/03/jeep-owner-demographics/

That article leaves more questions than answers:

Oklahoma is #1 per capita? Why do people need a Jeep in Oklahoma? It's as flat as a pancake!
Utah and Colorado aren't even in the top 5 per capita? If we see this many Jeeps in those states, what do the roads look like in Oklahoma?!

 

[jay-rod427]

That article leaves more questions than answers:

Oklahoma is #1 per capita? Why do people need a Jeep in Oklahoma? It's as flat as a pancake!
Utah and Colorado aren't even in the top 5 per capita? If we see this many Jeeps in those states, what do the roads look like in Oklahoma?!

Clearly you haven't spent much time in OK. Yes some parts are flat, but the eastern part of the state has great terrain, including several off road parks with some intense rock/hill climbing. Not to mention the sand dunes in western OK.

 

[timhood]

Clearly you haven't spent much time in OK. Yes some parts are flat, but the eastern part of the state has great terrain, including several off road parks with some intense rock/hill climbing. Not to mention the sand dunes in western OK.

Yes, I'm Oklahoma ignorant. Last time I was there, I was 8 years old and we probably didn't go through the interesting part.

So it doesn't all look like this.

And sand dunes? Mind expanded.

 

[jay-rod427]

Yes, I'm Oklahoma ignorant. Last time I was there, I was 8 years old and we probably didn't go through the interesting part.

So it doesn't all look like this.

And sand dunes? Mind expanded.

https://www.travelok.com/state-parks/little-sahara-state-park
https://grandlakeliving.com/off-roading/disney-oklahoma-a-top-rock-crawling-destination/
https://www.alltrails.com/trail/us/oklahoma/k-trail--2

 

[ZackDanger]

3 months or so ago I was 159/150 (my spot/dealer allocations). So even though I had a 2nd day reservation (I know, WTF?!) it looked like I would not get a MY2021.
Fast forward to today, I am not 113/150 so I am definitely getting a MY2021.
Doing the math, and applying it generally to all of my dealers reservations, 46 people of the 158 people ahead of me, 29 % did not respond/deferred to MY 22, or cancelled. That means 71% DID complete their order, fairly high. This is in southern Kalifornia not sure if that means much to nationwide averages.

Just so you’re emotionally prepared, the initial estimation of 150 units of allocation was just an estimation.

Once that denominator is actually calculated, it may very well drop because conversions were lower than expected (evidenced by your 159-113 change).

Either way, you were always right on the cusp, but I wouldn’t count on their allocations actually being 150.

 

[HBTFD]

That article leaves more questions than answers:

Oklahoma is #1 per capita? Why do people need a Jeep in Oklahoma? It's as flat as a pancake!
Utah and Colorado aren't even in the top 5 per capita? If we see this many Jeeps in those states, what do the roads look like in Oklahoma?!

or near the Witchita mountains.

Yes, I'm Oklahoma ignorant. Last time I was there, I was 8 years old and we probably didn't go through the interesting part.

So it doesn't all look like this.

And sand dunes? Mind expanded.

Witchita mountains in SW OK

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