66.75% final order conversion rate for 2021 Bronco

[Drex]

So.. If a dealer gets a month of allocations taken away, and the customers cannot switch, they dealer knows they have a captive sale and perhaps figure the customer might not even know that there was a penalty. Don't forget, this was a dealer communication, the general public was not informed. Ford only penalizes the legitimate converted reservation holder with the penalty. Since the dealer is not having any costs until after the trucks show up, I really have never understood why a dealer would care about delaying income from a sale (no carrying costs) when they can charge ADM on each unit that exceeds the profit of five or more MSRP sales. I would not be surprised if 30 points of that percentage wasn't dealer stock orders from stolen reservations.

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[L8apex]

So.. If a dealer gets a month of allocations taken away, and the customers cannot switch, they dealer knows they have a captive sale and perhaps figure the customer might not even know that there was a penalty. Don't forget, this was a dealer communication, the general public was not informed. Ford only penalizes the legitimate converted reservation holder with the penalty. Since the dealer is not having any costs until after the trucks show up, I really have never understood why a dealer would care about delaying income from a sale (no carrying costs) when they can charge ADM on each unit that exceeds the profit of five or more MSRP sales. I would not be surprised if 30 points of that percentage wasn't dealer stock orders from stolen reservations.

But it affects allocation on future special vehicles too. Possibly Warthog/Heritage, whatever limited editions Mustang, maybe the next Ford GT.

The sale of one Ford GT probably equals the profits the fudged Broncos.

 

[Razorbak86]

I could easily see 20% of legitimate orders walking away between orders and delivery. Should those dealers be penalized?

If a dealership converts 15-20% of its reservations under employee names, and then has 20% cancellations from real customers with legitimate reasons, then they should be penalized for not maintaining 80% name match. Of course, they will get an opportunity to appeal for legitimate reasons. Good luck to them.

 

[GToddC5]

Because this site consists of 18K of the 190K reservations. We are the enthusiasts - and plenty of people here have cancelled. I can see the gen-pop losing patience and just grabbing a Taco/4Runner/Wrangler.

Ford is obviously expecting this too from their experience with orders / Mach-E. The 20% didn't just get pulled out of a hat. It was determined that that's a reasonable amount of shrink / ability to detect funny business.

Not to mention all the tire kickers in this group of 18k. As of now, only 2737 of the enthusiasts here submitted data to the Order Submission thread. We're just a tiny fraction. Of awesomeness.

 

[ChompSticks]

Curious to know what percentage is MY22 or priority 99

 

[kodiakisland]

How many of these were dealerships converting orders without the customer's consent?

20% if they were smart.

 

[Atomicdog]

Because this site consists of 18K of the 190K reservations. We are the enthusiasts - and plenty of people here have cancelled. I can see the gen-pop losing patience and just grabbing a Taco/4Runner/Wrangler.

Ford is obviously expecting this too from their experience with orders / Mach-E. The 20% didn't just get pulled out of a hat. It was determined that that's a reasonable amount of shrink / ability to detect funny business.

Perhaps. But on the flipside maybe 20% is the amount of funny business Ford was willing to allow to keep the dealers happy. I would imagine every canceled order will be sold with a hefty ADM.

 

[XCR440]

So..., how does that translate to number of actual orders placed? Rates are fun and all but can be easily manipulated to fit a narrative.

Don't know, just fun info for killing time at this point, this number isn't usefull for allocation either.

So you didn't necessarily pick up much from that because your competitors were similar to you. Gotcha. Good luck!!

We'll be competing nationally for allocation so we're over that, but it's only the 9/18 and earlier, I'm at 100% on those reservations, but we don't know the national number, I'm guessing its over the 66%, but not sure how far, I'm guessing 70%, but could be 80, and I'm betting we never find out. So to sum up, I expect to gain allocation, but not double it like I'd dreamed of a couple weeks ago when national was 42%.

Nathan, do you know whether those conversion rates are calculated against orders with pre-9/18 reservation timestamps (a small subset of total orders), simply for allocation purposes, or against total orders to date?

These rates are for all reservations, not just the 9/18, so not useful in guessing allocation, more of just a fun/hype number.

20% is a lot of wiggle room hell it’s not even a wiggle it’s a wrestling ring. That’s why it should be tightened up.

I don't know why everyone so fixated on the 20%, I don't see it as a problem, unless commodities are so bad we can't get anything anyone really wants, I'd be shocked to see many on new Ford dealers lots. I think you're far more likely to find them on used car dealers and online where flippers and others that are outside Ford's ability to control will be selling them. These will account for more units than dealers. If they were Broncos sold at MSRP it wouldn't leave much, but for the flippers that can buy at under invoice, plenty of meat on the bones if they've got the ability to put it in a state without tax, then resell, even with low tax rate, might leave some, I see a lot of these in the future.

This is for 2021, for 22, might be a different story, dealers could end up with lots more reservations on the lot then, I'll have to see how allocation is done or what the plan is on those.

 

[L8apex]

Perhaps. But on the flipside maybe 20% is the amount of funny business Ford was willing to allow to keep the dealers happy. I would imagine every canceled order will be sold with a heavy ADM.

For sure it's a weird relationship between dealers and Ford. And you can guarantee there will be heavy ADM on the cancellations.

But converting 20% of fake orders or orders without consent, and then expecting the other 80% to all go through with purchase is asking for trouble.

I'm sure there's some dealer funny business going on - but will it be 20% by design, doubtful.

 

[vrtical]

whatever numbers look good on paper for 04/27

 

[Skmac]

Exactly. Since the reservation deposit was with the dealer, they could refund the deposit for anyone who declined to order or was a non-contact, convert with the person's name still on the reservation, and then "no match" them when it was delivered. The "no match" was designed to protect them against cancellations, but they are definitely going to game the system. Unfortunately there will be Broncos on lots for sale before reservations are filled, something Ford guaranteed would not happen. Really sad for everyone waiting patiently and trying to follow the rules.
Ford needs to revisit this issue and tighten this up. I see the potential for a lot of abuse.

If you see this report them to Ford they are suppose to get in trouble for this type of behavior

 

[VelocityBrew]

Not to mention all the tire kickers in this group of 18k. As of now, only 2737 of the enthusiasts here submitted data to the Order Submission thread. We're just a tiny fraction. Of awesomeness.

Money down and waiting here. Truly wonder how many have done the same.

 

[GoldenKnight]

20% if they were smart.

And to add, I don't think the majority of dealers will be submitting orders without the person's permission. I'd hope the majority of them called reservation holder Bob to connect his order, Bob declines to order for whatever reason, and now an ethical dealership uses Bob's reservation that he's declined to get themselves some dealer stock. I'd honestly have no problem with that.

 

[kbBronco]

Spoke to my dealer, here in North Texas, and their conversion rate was 84%. I’m 13th in line, with a 7/13 reservation, after they filter out the folks holding off till MY22. #nowwewait

 

[1st4rd]

The cancelled orders that dealers get their hands on will still be built in roughly timestamp order as if there is a real customer waiting on it, so it is not like the dealers are going to get a ton of Broncos before the early res holders get theirs. There may be a few weird cases but I would guess that most cancellations would be the ones placed after the first few order days, made by more casual Bronco customers, rather than the enthusiastic ones. These "20%" Broncos will be showing up late in year I think. There will also be dealers who sell their mannequins earlier than they should at a big profit.

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